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《经济学季刊》全文下载---第6卷第2期

发布日期：2007-01-09 01:04    来源：北京大学国家发展研究院

经 济 学 (季 刊)

第6卷第2期(总第24期)

2007年1月

目 录

论 文

我国两部门劳动生产率增长及国际比较（1978—2005）——巴拉萨萨缪尔森效应与人民币实际汇率关系的重新考察--------------------卢锋 刘鎏

FDI与国内资本：挤出还是挤入----------罗长远

基于贸易视角的人民币区域化研究--------韩民春 袁秀林

金融开放的多角度透视----------------黄玲

平等与增长携手并进——收益递增、策略性行为和分工的效率损失

-----------------陆铭 陈钊 杨真真

经济自由及其变动的增长效应——来自跨国经济增长面板数据的再检视

------------------黄怡胜 舒元

经济作物、食物获取权与饥荒：对森的理论的检验--------范子英 孟令杰

分工与农业组织化演进：基于间接定价理论模型的分析-------------向国成 韩绍凤

社会资本的作用随市场化进程减弱还是加强？——来自中国农村贫困的实证研究

-------------张爽 陆铭 章元

经济转轨中国有资本比重的最优路径选择——一个动态模型---------解明

领导、追随与社群合作的集体行动——行业协会反倾销诉讼的案例分析

----------朱宪辰 李玉连

领导、追随与社群合作的集体行动：基于公平相容约束的扩展--------皮建才

部门选择对工资性别差距的影响：1988—2001年--------葛玉好

职业流动中的性别差异：审视中国城市劳动力市场---------------宋月萍

上市公司的财务政策与绩效-------------翟林瑜

土地兼并的历史检视-------------刘正山

季节调整中的春节模型---------栾惠德 张晓峒

 

 

 

我国两部门劳动生产率增长及国际比较（1978—2005）——巴拉萨萨缪尔森效应与人民币实际汇率关系的重新考察

-------------卢锋 刘鎏

*摘要 依据巴拉萨萨缪尔森效应假说，一国经济追赶伴随的可贸易部门劳动生产率的“相对相对增长”会派生本币实际汇率升值趋势。本文对改革开放以来我国可贸易与不可贸易部门劳动生产率各自增长、相对增长、国际比较增长等指标进行系统估测，发现上述结构性生产率指标与人民币实际汇率之间的关系存在与巴拉萨萨缪尔森效应假说推论一致的经验证据；利用人均或劳均产出等总量性生产率指标检验这一理论对人民币实际汇率的解释力，则存在理论假说变量与度量指标选择不兼容的问题。

关键词 中国劳动生产率，人民币实际汇率，巴拉萨萨缪尔森效应

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Measurements of China’s Relative Labor Productivity Growth (1978—2005)

—Rethinking the Relationship Between the Balassa Samuelson Effect and Renminbi Real Exchange Rate

 

FENG LU, LIU LIU(Peking University)

Abstract BalassaSamuelson effect in a country is based on the “relative relative catchup” of labor productivity for tradable sector. Taking manufacturing and service sectors to represent the tradable and nontradable sectors respectively, this study measures the relative productivity growth between the two sectors in China during 1978—2005. Using 13 OECD countries as the benchmark countries, it measures Chinas “relative relative growth” of labor productivity for tradable sector in the period. The evidence has been found to support the linkage between the structural productivity growth and RMB real exchange rate during the period.

JEL Classification F31，F43，O47

 

FDI与国内资本：挤出还是挤入

罗长远

*摘要 本文应用中国省际面板数据对FDI与国内资本的关系进行了实证研究。结果发现：FDI对国内资本存在挤入效应，产生这种效应的原因与FDI主要以“绿地投资”的方式进入并主要分布于中国实力较强的制造业有关，也与中国市场整体竞争程度较高有关；由于政府“偏向性的”政策和私人资本“发育滞后”，FDI对国有资本的挤入作用大于对私人资本的作用；在FDI对国内资本的挤入效应中，金融支持具有“协进”的作用，即金融支持越强，挤入效应越大。

关键词FDI，国内资本，挤入效应

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FDI and Domestic Capital: Crowding out or Crowding in

CHANGYUAN LUO (Fudan University)

Abstract This paper uses provincial panel data to investigate the relationship between FDI and domestic capital in China. The results show that FDI has “crowdingin” effects on domestic capital. The crowdingin effects that FDI has on stateowned capital are larger than on private capital. The stronger are the financial supports, the larger are the crowdingin effects. That FDI produces positive impacts on domestic capital accumulation is related to its model of entry in the form of “green field investment” as well as the high degree of competition in Chinese industries. As for the different effects on different types of domestic capital, there is no doubt that discriminating policies of the government have played a major role.

JEL Classification F21, C33, O21

 

 

基于贸易视角的人民币区域化研究

韩民春 袁秀林

*摘要 本文综述了人民币区域化的相关研究，从宏观经济的角度分析了人民币区域化的区域经济环境。并采用最优货币区标准内生性的模型，选取1989—2003年的数据，验证了中国同亚洲其他经济体双边贸易关联度与经济相关程度之间的关系。此外，本文从贸易的角度对人民币“区域化”的收益以及相应的效应做了实证分析，通过对中国与亚洲其他经济体的贸易情况，以及中国经济发展对亚洲经济体贸易流量和贸易结构等方面的影响，来判断在亚洲贸易发展的趋势下人民币“区域化”的可行性。

关键词人民币区域化，贸易关联度，经济周期

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RMB Regionalization: A Trade Perspective

MINCHUN HAN (Hua Zhong University of Science & Technology and Wuhan University)

XIULIN YUAN (Hua Zhong University of Science & Technology)

 

Abstract This paper investigates the problems surrounding RMB regionalization from the point of view of trade. A quantitative analysis is conducted to explore the regional economic environment for RMB regionalization. An empirical methodology of OCA is used to test the correlations of bilateral trade intensity and business cycle between China and other Asian economies using 15year data. We have also conducted a comprehensive analysis on the impacts of Chinas economic growth on the trade flows and trade patterns in other Asian economies. The results are linked to the feasibility of RMB regionalization.

JEL Classification F15, F33, F41

 

金融开放的多角度透视

黄玲

*摘要 本文分析了当前几个流行的金融开放衡量指数存在的可靠性与稳定性的偏差，并通过一系列修正性和补充性的衡量指数对114个国家在1970—2004年间的金融开放进程的趋势与特征进行了多角度的考察比较。

关键词 资本市场开放程度，资本管制，国际资本流动

Assessing Global Financial Integration through Alternative Measurements

LING HUANG（Peking University）

Abstrac tThis paper discusses the drawbacks and biases of several popular indices of financial openness, and suggests several alternative measuring indices. These indices are used to characterize the financial integration process for 114 countries during the period 1970—2004.

JEL Classification F21， F36， F41

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平等与增长携手并进

——收益递增、策略性行为和分工的效率损失

陆铭 陈钊 杨真真

*摘要 本文中的策略性劳动分工模型解释了为什么人们有时不选择分工，并造成社会产出损失。由于在高技能部门里存在“干中学”效应，低技能者如果背离比较优势而从事高技能部门的生产，就可以在未来分享劳动分工收益的过程中获得更高的谈判地位，甚至可能逆转自己的比较优势。然而，这种个人理性的选择却可能导致社会的产出损失。这个模型的一个意外而合理的含义是，在策略性的劳动分工决策中，如果未来一期由交易关系瓦解而造成的损失足够小，那么，交易成本的减少也可能导致当期分工的恶化。但我们的模型也包含了交易成本下降可能促进分工这一既有理论中的特殊情况。这个模型有助于理解在国际贸易、国内区域间分工和家庭内分工中广泛被观察到的低效率现象及相应的政策。

关键词 策略性劳动分工，收益递增，干中学，平等，增长

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Equality and Growth Hand in Hand: Increasing Returns, Strategic Behavior and Efficiency Loss in the Division of Labor

MING LU, ZHAOCHEN, ZHENZHEN YANG (Fudan University)

Abstract The strategic labor division model in this paper explains why people sometimes choose not to specialize despite social losses. With the learningbydoing effects in the highskill sector, the unskilled, if he does not specialize himself currently, can gain higher bargaining position in sharing the future benefits of labor division, and even reverse his comparative advantage. However, this individually rational decision might result in social losses in production. One striking, but reasonable, implication of the model is that the reduction in transaction costs does not necessarily lead to specialization in strategic labor division, if the loss due to the ending of the current partnership is low enough. Our model includes the existing theories as a special case. This model sheds light on why inefficiency is widely observed in international trade, withincountry interregional specialization, and intrahousehold labor division.

JEL Classification D90, O12, O41

 

 

经济自由及其变动的增长效应——来自跨国经济增长面板数据的再检视

黄怡胜 舒元

*摘要 经济自由是市场经济的基础，是社会基础设施(Social Infrastructure)的核心内涵。经济自由的提升有利于提高存量资本的生产配置效率，并对国内外投资给出积极信号，推动经济增长。本文在新古典经济增长理论框架下，研究各国社会基础设施发展水平的不同及其转型动态，用近百个国家的增长面板数据验证经济自由水平及其提升的增长效应。此外，本文还用动态面板数据的GMM估计方法检验发现，经济自由是经济增长的Granger原因，而后者不是前者的Granger原因。该结论对发展中国家的经济发展政策具有指导意义。

关键词 经济自由，全要素生产率，经济增长，增长效应，因果关系

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The Growth Effects of Economic Freedom and Its Changes—An Empirical Revisit Based on Cross country Data

YISHENG HUANG, YUAN SHU (Sun Yat-sen University)

Abstract The neoclassical and endogenous growth models are based on the assumption of given marketoriented institutions, therefore they do not study social infrastructure. In the framework of the neoclassical growth model with a reconsideration of institutional arrangements and dynamics, this paper investigates the role of social infrastructure in economic growth. Panel data of 97 economies are applied to test the contribution of economic freedom to economic growth. The robust growth effect of economic freedom is investigated. The GMM method of dynamic panel data shows that economic freedom is the Grangercasualty for economic growth but the inverse causality does not hold.

JEL Classification E13， O38， O57

 

经济作物、食物获取权与饥荒：对森的理论的检验

范子英 孟令杰

*摘要 本文采用面板数据双向固定效应方法对中国1959—1961年饥荒发生时农村地区的死亡率差异进行分析，得出制度性因素是导致该差异的主要原因；第一个五年计划中的统购统销制度严重影响了随后发生的饥荒的地区性差异，其中缺粮区的衡定是一个关键因素。在所有缺粮区中，我们发现经济作物主产区的影响比传统缺粮区的影响要大得多。同时还对森的食物获取权理论和传统的食物供给量下降理论（FAD）的解释能力进行对比，发现前者在解释中国饥荒时更有效。

关键词 经济作物，食物获取权，FAD，饥荒

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Cash Crop, Food Entitlement and Chinese Famine:—A Test on Sen’s Entitlement Theory

ZIYING FAN, LINGJIE MENG (Nanjing Agricultural University)

Abstract Using panel data to analyze the different death rates across the provinces in the Chinese Famine during the period 1959—1961, this paper concludes that the hierarchical food entitlement system at that time was the main cause for the finding that rural residents in grain producing areas died of hunger with a much higher rate than rural residents in food deficient Areas or urban residents. Under this hierarchical system, cash crop areas were more privileged than conventional food deficient areas in acquiring food during the famine years. Assuming away the effect of the communal dining halls, we find food availability decline (FAD) and Sens Entitlement both contributed significantly to the increase in the death rate during the famine, but the latter has more explaining power.

JEL Classification I38, N55, Q18

 

分工与农业组织化演进：基于间接定价理论模型的分析

向国成 韩绍凤

*摘要 本文在适当扩展间接定价理论模型基础上，运用它对改革开放以来中国农业组织化沿着集体经济→家庭经营→农业商业化→农业产业化→农民团队化的演进路线进行了统一的理论解释：这是改革开放提高交易效率，促进分工演化的结果，是农民对中间产品、最终产品及劳动的交易效率与风险进行综合比较后，选择剩余权利赖以实现的最优组织结构的结果。

关键词 分工，农业组织化，间接定价理论

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Division of Labor and Agricultural Organizational Evolution: An Analysis Based on the Model of Indirect Pricing Theory

GUOCHENG XIANG, SHAOFENG HAN (Hunan University of Science and Technology)

Abstract Based on an extension of the model of indirect pricing theory, this paper provides a unified explanation of the evolutionary path of Chinas agricultural organization since the reform: collective economy→household responsibility system→commercialization→agricultural industrialization→peasants cooperatives. This is the result of the evolution of division of labor based on the promotion of transaction efficiency. It is also the result of the choice by the peasants of the best organizational structure that is necessary for the realization of residual rights after the comparison between the risks and transaction efficiency of intermediate products, final products, and labor.

JEL Classification D23，Q13，Q15

 

 

社会资本的作用随市场化进程减弱还是加强？——来自中国农村贫困的实证研究

张爽 陆铭 章元

*摘要 在市场化转型的过程中，社会资本作为一种非市场力量，它的作用会随着市场化进程减弱还是加强？本文以农村贫困为例，研究了市场化如何影响社会资本的作用。本文发现：(1) 社会网络和公共信任能显著地减少贫困，而且在社区层面的作用尤其明显；(2) 随着市场化程度的提高，社会资本减少贫困的作用总体上来说会减少，其中，家庭层面的社会网络的作用减少得尤其显著，而社会层面的社会资本的作用却不会显著下降。

关键词 贫困，社会资本，市场化，交互项

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Does the Strength of Social Capital on Poverty Reduction Fall or Rise during Marketization?

—Evidence from Rural China

SHUANG ZHANG, MING LU, YUAN ZHANG（Fudan University）

Abstract Social capital, as a nonmarket power, has significant effect on poverty. Does the strength of social capital fall or rise during marketization? By studying rural poverty in China, this paper exploits how marketization affects the effects of social capital. We find that: (1) Social networks and public trust contribute significantly to reduce poverty in rural China, especially at community level. (2) Generally speaking, the effect of social capital on poverty falls during marketization, especially the effect of social networks at the household level. But the effects of the social capital at the community level is not be reduced significantly.

JEL Classification I32，O15，P36，Z13

 

 

经济转轨中国有资本比重的最优路径选择

——一个动态模型

解明

摘要 本文在分别考虑政府与私人部门效用最大化的基础上，利用一个动态模型研究了转轨过程中国有资本比重的最优路径问题。借助数值模拟，首先，本文发现最优转轨路径仍然是存在的，并且只能是渐进式的。其次，研究还发现存在一个转轨成本的临界值，当转轨成本大于该值时，国有资本比重将不会降低，经济将不会进行转轨。另外，本文的研究还为现实中政府在转轨期间所推行的一些改革政策提供了理论支持。

关键词 国有资本比重，经济转轨，最优路径

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The Optimal Time Path of State owned Capital in Economic Transition—A Dynamic Model

MING XIE (Fudan University)

Abstract This paper presents a dynamic model based on the utility maximization decisions of the government and the private sector to study the optimal withdrawing path of stateowned capital in economic transition. Numerical analysis shows that (1) an optimal transition path still exists when treating the government and the private sector separately, (2) when transition costs are larger than a critical value, an economy will never start a transition by itself. In addition, numerical analysis also gives several theoretical supports to some of the governments reform policies.

JEL Classification H11， O10， P21

 

 

领导、追随与社群合作的集体行动——行业协会反倾销诉讼的案例分析

朱宪辰 李玉连

*摘要 集体行动是集体性物品生产或共享资源自发治理所引发的群体性合作问题，然而治理收益的非排他性决定了“搭便车”动机和行为的存在，导致集体行动实现的困难。本文通过引入异质性个体及其在集体行动实现过程中的策略互动来分析可能的动态博弈均衡结果，表明由于异质性的存在，决定了个体充当领导者、跟随者或者搭便车者的不同角色。本文利用这一理论模型解释了温州烟具协会应对欧盟打火机的反倾销诉讼事件。

关键词 集体行动，共享资源，异质性，协会

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Leaders， Followers and Collective Actions in Communal Cooperation—A Case Study on Business Associations Anti dumping Lawsuits

XIANCHEN ZHU, YULIAN LI(Nanjing University of Science and Technology)

Abstract Collective action is called upon for communal cooperation in supplying collective goods or governing common property resources. Because all the actors have the incentive to freeride due to the nonexclusiveness of the benefits, it is difficult to have successful collective action. This article introduces individual heterogeneities and uses a model to analyze individual strategy and equilibrium behavior. Individual actors choose among three roles in the course of collective action: a leader, a follower, or a freerider. We use this model to analyze a recent antidumping lawsuit in Wenzhou.

JEL Classification D73, H41, P35

 

 

领导、追随与社群合作的集体行动：基于公平相容约束的扩展

 

皮建才

*摘要 本文基于公平相容约束扩展了朱宪辰、李玉连（2007）的模型，扩展后的模型更具有现实解释力。集体行动能不能实现，除了要考虑组织者和参与者的个体理性约束以外，还必须考虑组织者和参与者的公平相容约束。符合组织者的个体理性约束但不符合其公平相容约束的集体行动照样不能实现。而且，搭便车者的破坏性作用是不容小视的。

关键词 集体行动，异质性，个体理性约束，公平相容约束

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Leaders, Followers and Collective Actions in Communal Cooperation:An Extension Based on the Fairness Compatible Constraint

JIANCAI PI(Peking University)

Abstract This paper extends the work of Zhu and Li (2007) by introducing the fairnesscompatible constraint. Our work strengthens the explanatory power of their model. Whether a collective action can be realized depends not only on the organizer and followers individual rationality constraints, but also on their fairnesscompatible constraints. Collective actions that meet the organizers individual rationality constraint but dont meet his fairnesscompatible constraint cannot be realized. Furthermore, freeriders play a destructive role which should not be ignored.

JEL Classification A13, D63, C70, H41

 

 

部门选择对工资性别差距的影响：1988—2001年

葛玉好

*摘要 基于1988—2001年的UHS数据库，本文首先研究的是男女部门选择分散程度（以Ducan 分散指数来表示）和工资差距的趋势。结果发现，前者的趋势是先平稳、后下降、再上升，后者的趋势是先平稳、后上升、再下降。本文还利用Appleton分解方法研究了部门选择影响工资性别差距的具体程度，结果表明，除了中间的某些年份（1992—1996年），部门选择对工资性别差距的影响并不大，即使在那些特殊的年份，影响程度也不会超过20%。因此，缩小性别之间工资差距的关键是降低两者在部门内的工资差异。

关键词 工资性别差距，Appleton分解，指数基准，选择偏差

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Sectoral Choice and the Gender Wage Gap: 1988—2001

YUHAO GE (Peking University)

Abstract Based on the Urban Household Survey of 1988 to 2001, our research finds that the gender gap in sectoral choice runs opposite to the gender gap in wage. The former is stable, decreasing and then increasing; the latter is stable, increasing and then decreasing. We also use the Appleton decomposition method to study this issue. Decomposition results show that the gender gap in sectoral choice has little influence on the gender gap in wage except in few special years. Even in these years, its importance never exceeds 20%. So the key to closing the gender wage gap is to reduce gender wage differentials within sectors.

JEL Classification J16，J31，J71

 

 

职业流动中的性别差异：审视中国城市劳动力市场

宋月萍

*摘要 本文旨在回答以下问题：（1） 在中国城市劳动力市场中，职业流动性别差异以何种模式体现？（2） 职业流动性别差异主要受哪些因素决定？文章使用第二次中国妇女社会地位调查数据，预测人力资本、家庭因素、社会资本、市场结构转型对男女职业流动的影响。实证结果表明：在经济转型期间，人力资本因素并不能完全解释我国职业流动的性别差异，而家庭特征、社会资本以及劳动力市场结构变动都对职业流动性别差异产生显著影响。

关键词 职业流动，性别，多项逻辑模型

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Does Gender Make a Difference?—Career Mobility in Urban China

YUEPING SONG (Nankai University)

Abstract This paper analyzes gender disparity in career mobility in Urban China using data from a recent survey. The study intends to shed lights on the following questions: 1) What is the pattern of gender differences in career mobility? And 2) what are the main determinants of gender disparity in career mobility? Multinomial regression models are estimated. The results show that gender disparity in career mobility is not only associated with human capital, but also the domestic role played by women, party membership, spouses social status, and labor reallocation in SOEs.

JEL Classification J16， J63， C25

 

 

上市公司的财务政策与绩效

翟林瑜

*摘要 本文通过理论和实证分析发现，上市公司的财务政策对绩效有影响作用。派息率作为反映经营者对投资者利益重视程度的指标，对生产效率与资本效益均具有显著性正面效应；长期投资比率作为反映经营者对企业成长偏好程度的指标，对生产效率与资本效益均具有显著性负面效应；而负债比率作为本应反映来自投资者事后惩治力度的指标，对资本效益却具有显著性负面效应。此外，属于竞争性行业的企业的生产效率不低于受保护行业的企业，但其资本效益劣于后者。

关键词 财务政策，生产效率，资本效益

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Corporate Financial Policies and Performance of Chinese Listed Firms

LINYU ZHAI (Osaka City University)

Abstract After describing the behavior of Chinese listed firms with a model and then examining it empirically，we find that firms financial policies have significant effects on its performance Payout ratio has a significantly positive effect on both the productivity and profitability but long term investment ratio has a significantly negative effect on the both, and the debt ratio has no significant effect on productivity but a negative effect on profitability In addition, compared with protected industries, firms in competitive industries tend to have comparable productivity but lower profitability

JEL Classification G30， L20， K00

 

土地兼并的历史检视

刘正山

*摘要 当前学术界的主流观点为，土地兼并是建立在封建土地剥削和掠夺的基础上。他们把土地兼并看成是封建统治腐朽的集中表现，是生产力发展的桎梏，是农民起义爆发的根本原因。本文的论证表明，这些观点站不住脚，夸大了土地兼并的程度，也没有从根本上认识兼并的本质和历史作用。

关键词 土地兼并，分户析产，农民起义

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New Perspective on Land Annexation in Traditional China

ZHENGSHAN LIU（Dongbei University of Finance and Economics）

Abstract The mainstream consensus is that land annexation in traditional China was based on the exploitation and robbery of the poor Land annexation is said to be a shackle for economic growth, and the most important cause for peasant uprisings This paper tries to give a different viewpoint I show with historical evidence that the extent and scope of land annexation in traditional China was exaggerated The nature and the historic role of land annexation have not well understood

JEL Classification N15， Q15， O13

 

 

季节调整中的春节模型

栾惠德 张晓峒

*摘要 如何估计并消除春节等移动假日的影响是我国季节调整工作中的一个重点和难点。本文首先借鉴X12ARIMA季节调整程序中的复活节模型建立了基本的春节模型，继而考虑到存量数据与流量数据在性质上的差异，提出了存量数据的春节模型。在此基础上进一步扩展，构造了三区段变权重春节模型。对社会消费品零售总额和货币供应量的实证检验表明，这一组春节模型能够很好地消除季节调整中的春节效应。

关键词 季节调整，春节效应，X-12-ARIMA

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A Spring Festival Model for Seasonal Adjustments

HUIDE LUAN, XIAOTONG ZHANG（Nankai University）

Abstract It is a challenging issue in seasonal adjustments for Chinas monthly data to estimate and eliminate holiday effects such as the Chinese Spring Festival This paper constructs a Spring Festival Model for flow data, and then proposes a Spring Festival Model for stock data allowing for the difference between flow data and stock data On the basis of these two models, we formulate 3period and varyingweights augmented Spring Festival Models for both flow data and stock data Applying these models to retail sales and M0 series proves that they can eliminate Spring Festival effect in a valid way

JEL Classification C87， C14， C22


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