The 70th NSD Policy Talk

Re-appraising China's fear of population ageing: An extrapolated cross-country transition matrix approach to 'Getting Old before Getting Rich'

Presenter: Dr. Lauren Johnston

Research Fellow at the Melbourne Institute of Applied Economic and Social Research, University of Melbourne

Timing: October 27, 2016, 13:30-15:00

Address: First floor of Wanzhong Building, National School of Development, Peking University

【Abstract】

Since Wu (1986), China has had a 'fear of ageing' around 'getting old before getting rich' notion (未富先老）. Over three decades since, however, many countries have demonstrated accelerated increases in life expectancy and fertility declines. With reference to the 2016 China Update (ch. 10), this presentation extends Wu's concept of 'getting old before rich' into a four-state demographic-development concept. Using a transition matrix framework it studies the movement of countries between the four states over time. It identifies that recently it is more probable for a country to enter the high-income group from a position of population ageing than from a youthful population. It may thus be more useful for China's policy makers to now enhance their understanding the interaction of population ageing and the economy - across countries and time. This approach may even identify that there are advantages to 'getting old before rich' (eg. China) over 'getting old after getting rich' (eg. Japan). Less 'fear of ageing' could thus also better support China to continue to 'get rich after getting old (先老后富）'.

【Introduction of presenter】

Dr. Lauren A. Johnston is a Research Fellow at the Melbourne Institute of Applied Economic and Social Research, University of Melbourne, since January 2015. Her research centres on development transition with reference to demography, trade and investment, and has a regional focus on China and Africa. She is a co-editor of the annual China Update series, is published in journals and academic blogs. Lauren has previously held positions at the Beijing Foreign Studies University, World Bank, World Economic Forum, Overseas Development Institute (Ministries of Finance of Sierra Leone and Guyana), and Taylor and Francis publishing. Lauren holds a PhD in Economics from Peking University (2013), an MSc from the University of London (SOAS) and a B.A/B.Com from the University of Melbourne. She is an Australian and a British national.

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