Table of Content 期刊目录
1. Fallacy of the ‘China Collapse’ theory
Justin Yifu Lin
Pages: 3-20

2. The framework of macroeconomic policy in China
Yiping Huang
Pages: 21-36

3. China’s international environment and development challenges
Xiuping Hua, Haolin Li & Yong Wang
Pages: 37-57

4. Overseas investment by China’s manufacturing industry: where to go?
Rong Cai
Pages: 58-77

5. The growth of the county economy in China
Henry H. Bi
Pages: 78-105

6The price of implicit guarantee: evidence from municipal bond markets in China
Ping Zhang, Jiahe Zheng, Kexin Tang, Xun Ge & Guangwei Liu
Pages: 106-130

7. The effects of macroeconomic uncertainty on corporate default risk: evidence from China
Rui Wang & Zhuo Huang
Pages: 131-154

Article Abstract 文章摘要

1. Fallacy of the ‘China Collapse’ theory
Justin Yifu Lin
Pages: 3-20

2. The framework of macroeconomic policy in China
Yiping Huang
Pages: 21-36
ABSTRACT
In this paper, I explore the macroeconomic policy framework with Chinese characteristics, focusing on its development, distinctive structural features, and the challenges it faces today. Drawing comparisons with conventional practices in market-oriented economies, I highlight three defining features of China’s framework: the use of non-price and non-market-based tools, the unique institutional roles of fiscal and monetary authorities, and the amplifying effect of local governments. Recent trends reveal emerging issues, such as limited fiscal capacity at the local level, weaker macroeconomic policy impacts, and risks associated with low inflation and balance sheet recessions. I argue that China’s macroeconomic regulation should prioritize counter-cyclical measures over cross-cyclical adjustments, improve policy coordination, and utilize sovereign credit to mitigate systemic risks. Finally, I propose practical recommendations to guide future policies, including fostering moderate inflation, accelerating fiscal spending, and shaping market expectations to stabilize the economy and ensure sustainable growth.
Link to the original text:：
https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/17538963.2024.2445445

3. China’s international environment and development challenges
Xiuping Hua, Haolin Li & Yong Wang
Pages: 37-57
ABSTRACT
The global economy faces a new complexity with slowing growth and persistent inflation, exacerbated by the pandemic, geopolitical disputes, and underlying structural factors. This paper first analyzes the economic development of the United States and the Eurozone. It then shifts its focus to China, discussing the current dynamics of its economic development landscape. The paper further analyses the Chinese economy’s development challenges brought about by deglobalization trends, intellectual property litigation risks, and problems in industrial upgrading. Finally, the paper provides strategic policy recommendations to navigate these complexities. It emphasizes that China should actively engage in international cooperation, strengthen the development of market infrastructure, and enhance the legal protection for intellectual property rights.
Link to the original text:：
https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/17538963.2024.2437865

4. Overseas investment by China’s manufacturing industry: where to go?
Rong Cai
Pages: 58-77
ABSTRACT
China’s manufacturing overseas investment has grown rapidly and become an important strategic choice for enterprises. When making ODI decisions, the manufacturing enterprises mainly evaluate from both the supply and demand side: for production localization, India, Turkey and Saudi Arabia are the top three choices; for supply chain realignment, Southeast Asia, India and South Korea are preferred regions for United States, and Turkey and Poland are preferred regions for Europe; Southeast Asia, India, Turkey and Mexico are prior regions for trade replacement; for strong purchasing power, Ireland, Poland, Romania, United States and India are on top of the list. The fragmentation of overseas markets due to geopolitical conflicts is the biggest challenge for Chinese enterprises. China’s manufacturing industry will shift from ‘made in China, sell to the world’ to ‘produce globally, serve globally.’ China’s new generation of multinational companies will grow rapidly with the expansion of manufacturing ODI.
Link to the original text:：
https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/17538963.2024.2447659

5. The growth of the county economy in China
Henry H. Bi
Pages: 78-105
ABSTRACT
This article evaluates the gross domestic product (GDP) growth of 2,089 counties in 31 provinces in China from three aspects over the period of 2015–2019: all of 2,089 counties at the national level, all counties within each province, and the county economy of 31 provinces. It has three key findings on the low-growth performance of the county economy: (1) There were 27 national-level low-growth counties, 24 of which were in three northeastern provinces (i.e. Liaoning, Jilin, and Heilongjiang) that are major grain producing provinces in China. (2) There were five provincial-level low-growth counties in four provinces. (3) Three provinces (i.e. Liaoning, Jilin, and Tianjin) had low performances in the growth of the county economy. This article sheds light on the regional patterns of the low-growth county economy in China. Policy recommendations for improving the development of the county economy in China are also discussed.
Link to the original text:：
https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/17538963.2024.2404757

6.The price of implicit guarantee: evidence from municipal bond markets in China
Ping Zhang, Jiahe Zheng, Kexin Tang, Xun Ge & Guangwei Liu
Pages: 106-130
ABSTRACT
In China, local government financing vehicles (LGFVs) have grown rapidly since the massive stimulus package in 2008. Due to the significant amount of funds allocated to public welfare infrastructure projects, an ‘implicit guarantee’ of debt repayment by local governments has emerged. This paper examines whether and how investors price this implicit guarantee, using a mixed cross-sectional fixed effects model, a generalized DID model, and placebo tests to investigate the hypotheses and identify the heterogeneity and robustness. The findings indicate that implicit guarantees do exist and are influenced by local fiscal capacity and previous guarantee behavior. Tightened regulations on hidden debt have increased the issuance spread of LGFV bonds, with the impact being more pronounced for regions with weaker fiscal and economic strength. Additionally, LGFVs with relatively lower administrative levels, stronger connections to public welfare-related business, higher explicit guarantees, and longer-term LGFV bonds are more influenced by the regulation.
Link to the original text:：
https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/17538963.2024.2406139

7. The effects of macroeconomic uncertainty on corporate default risk: evidence from China
Rui Wang & Zhuo Huang
Pages: 131-154
ABSTRACT
In this study, using a novel measure of provincial macroeconomic uncertainty in China, we examine the heterogeneous impacts of rising economic uncertainty on the default risk of private firms relative to state-owned enterprises (SOEs). We find that increasing macroeconomic uncertainty significantly raises the probability of default for private firms, while having little impact on SOEs. This relationship holds when using a matched sample of private firms and SOEs, controlling for multiple sets of fixed effects, and utilizing alternative measures of economic uncertainty. Additionally, the adverse impact of macroeconomic uncertainty on corporate default risk is more pronounced for private firms with severe financing constraints. Our analysis highlights deteriorating corporate performance and reduced access to external financing as key channels through which rising macroeconomic uncertainty disproportionately affects private firms.
Link to the original text:：
https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/17538963.2024.239995