北京大学国家发展研究院副教授（长聘），2002 年于美国哈佛大学取得统计学博士学位。曾担任北京大学光华管理学院助理教授、副教授、北京大学商务智能研究中心副主任、北京大学光华管理学院责任与社会价值中心副主任。曾获北京大学立项教材奖励、北京大学优秀班主任奖励及北京大学教学优秀奖。

英文论文：

[1] “The competence-loyalty tradeoff in China's political selection”, with Zhaoguang Wang and Yang Yao, Journal of Comparative Economics, Published Online.

[2] “A comparative study of design-based and analysis-based approaches to causal inference with observational data”, Biostatistics & Epidemiology, Published Online.

[3] “Bayesian text classification and summarization via a class-specified topic model”, with Feifei Wang, Yichao Li, Ke Deng and Jun S. Liu, Journal of Machine Learning Research, 2021, 22 (89), pp 1-48.

[3] “Bayesian disaggregated forecasts: Internal migration in Iceland,” with John Bryant, in Developments in Demographic Forecasting (The Springer Series on Demographic Methods and Population Analysis), edited by Stefano Mazzuco and Nico Keilman, pp 193-215. Springer, Cham, 2020.

[4] “Fully Bayesian benchmarking of small area estimation models”, with John Bryant, Journal of Official Statistics, 2020, 36 (1), pp 197-223.

[5] “Subgroup balancing propensity score”, with Jing Dong, Shuxi Zeng and Fan Li, Statistical Methods in Medical Research, 2020, 29 (3), pp 659-676.

[6] “Combining multiple imperfect data sources for small area estimation: A Bayesian model of provincial fertility rates in Cambodia”, with John Bryant, Statistical Theory and Related Fields, 2019, 3 (2), pp 178-185.

[7] "Bayesian small area demography", with John Bryant and Kirsten Nissen, Survey Methodology, 2019, 45 (1), pp 13-29.
[8] "A topic model for co-occurring normal documents and short texts," with Yang Yang, Feifei Wang, Jin Xu, and Philip S. Yu, World Wide Web-Internet and Web Information Systems, 2018, 21 (2), pp 487-513.
[9] "Bayesian forecasting of demographic rates for small areas: Emigration rates by age, sex, and region in New Zealand, 2014-2038", with John Bryant, Statistica Sinica, 2016, 26 (4), pp 1337-1363.
[10] "Distillation of news flow into analysis of stock reactions", with Wolfgang K. Härdle, Cathy Y. Chen and Elisabeth Bommes, Journal of Business and Economic Statistics, 2016, 34 (4), pp 547-563.
[11] "Comparative investigation of three Bayesian p values," Computational Statistics and Data Analysis, 2014, 79, pp 277–291.
[12] "The Bayesian additive classification tree applied to credit risk modeling”, with Wolfgang K. Härdle, Computational Statistics and Data Analysis, 2010, 54 (5), pp 1197-1205.
[13] "Likelihood-based analysis of causal effects of job-training programs using principal stratification", with Donald B. Rubin and Fabrizia Mealli, Journal of the American Statistical Association, 2009, 104 (485), pp 166-176.
[14] "Evaluating the effects of job training programs on wages through principal stratification", with Donald B. Rubin and Fabrizia Mealli, Advances in Econometrics, 2008, 21, pp 117-145.
[15] "Lookahead and piloting strategies for variable selection", with Ming Lin, Jun S. Liu and Rong Chen, Statistica Sinica, 2007, 17, pp 985-1003.
[16] "Independent particle filters", with Ming Lin, Qiansheng Cheng, and Rong Chen, Journal of the American Statistical Association, 2005, 100 (472), pp 1412-1421.
[17] "Using the EM algorithm to estimate the effects of job training programs on wages", with Donald B. Rubin and Fabrizia Mealli, Proceedings of the 55th
Session of the International Statistical Institute, 2005.
[18] "Causal inference with instrumental variables," in Applied Bayesian Modeling and Causal Inference from Incomplete-data Perspectives: An Essential Journey with Donald Rubin’s Statistical Family, edited by Andrew Gelman and Xiaoli Meng, Wiley, 2003.
[19] "Estimation of causal effects via principal stratification when some outcomes are truncated by ‘death’", with Donald B. Rubin, Journal of Educational and Behavioral Statistics, 2003, 28, pp 353-368.
[20] "Bayesian clustering with variable and transformation selections (with discussion)", with Jun S. Liu, Michael J. Palumbo and Charles E. Lawrence, in Bayesian Statistics 7: Proceedings of the Seventh Valencia International Meeting Dedicated to Dennis V. Lindley, edited by José-Miguel Bernardo, Philip Dawid, Jim O. Berger and Mike West, Oxford University Press, 2003, pp 249-275.
[21] "A new sequential importance sampling method and its application to the 2D hydrophobic-hydrophilic model", with Jun S. Liu, Journal of Chemical Physics, 2002, 117, pp 3492—3498.

中文论文：

[1]“基于社交网络的组织非正式沟通实证研究”，与董晶、魏娜，《现代管理科学》，2018 (4)，67-69。

[2]“统计模型在中文文本挖掘中的应用”，与王健，《数理统计与管理》，2017，36 (4)，609-619。

[3]“引领管理思想的<哈佛商业评论>”，《中国管理会计》，2017年7月创刊号。

[4]“高校学生企业社会责任态度调查（2014）（上、下）”，与贾峰、杨东宁等，《世界环境》，2015，(2) 49-51及(3) 50-53。

[5]“不确定环境中我国企业高管信息扫描行为的实证研究”，与董小英、鄢凡、刘倩倩，《管理世界》，2008年06期。

[6]“直邮营销中统计数据挖掘的应用”，与赵永鹏、曹丽娜、邵亚楠，《数理统计与管理》，2007，26 (2)，291-296。

[7]“产业聚集，所有制结构与外商投资企业的区位选择”，与陈玉宇，《经济学季刊》，2006，5 (4)，1091-1108。

[8]“品牌个性与消费者个性相关关系的实证研究”，与江明华、庞隽，《经济科学》，2005年第6期。