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CCER讨论稿:Long-Term Effects of Famine on Chronic Diseases: Evidence from China’s Great Leap Forward Famine

发布日期:2016-05-02 01:53    来源:北京大学国家发展研究院

Long-Term Effects of Famine on Chronic Diseases: Evidence from China’s Great Leap Forward Famine

Running Title: Famine and Chronic Diseases

Xuefeng Hu(a), Gordon G. Liu(b), and Maoyong Fan(c)*

(a )Xuefeng Hu, Department of Biology, University of Ottawa. 
(b )Gordon Liu, National School of Development, Beijing University.
(c )Maoyong Fan, Department of Economics, Ball State University.

ABSTRACT

We evaluate the long-term effects of famine on chronic diseases using China’s Great Leap Forward Famine as a natural experiment. Using a unique health survey, we explore the heterogeneity of famine intensity across regions and find strong evidence supporting both the adverse effect and the selection effect. The two offsetting effects co-exist and their magnitudes vary in different age cohorts at the onset of famine.  The selection effect is dominant among the prenatal/infant famine-exposed cohort, while the adverse effect appears dominant among the childhood/puberty famine-exposed cohort. The net famine effects are more salient in rural residents and non-migrants subsamples. Gender differences are also found, and are sensitive to smoking and drinking behaviors. Our conclusion is robust to various specifications. 

Keywords: Great Leap Forward Famine, Chronic Disease, Adverse Effect, Selection Effect, Gender Difference

JEL Classifications: C21; I18; J13

论文下载: Famine HE_Full