时间：2026年10月30日（周五）10:00-11:30

地点：北大国发院承泽园246教室

主持人：雷晓燕、易君健

参与老师：张丹丹、李玲、刘国恩、黄炜

主讲人：奚锡灿，复旦大学经济学院

摘要：China has relaxed restrictions on rural-to-urban migration, but access to urban public services remains tied to hukou. We estimate an equilibrium model of migration, marriage matching, and fertility using census and migrant-survey data. We find that aggregate fertility is lower under this incomplete urbanization than under either restricted migration or equal access to child-related public services for migrant families. Service equalization raises fertility more when migration costs are also reduced. It also benefits women more than men on average and weakens urban-hukou men’s marriage-market advantage.

主讲人简介：奚锡灿，复旦大学经济学院副教授，研究领域为宏观经济学、发展经济学和环境经济学,尤其专注于中国经济结构转型和资源配置效率问题。研究成果发表于PNAS、American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics、Journal of International Economics、International Economic Review、Canadian Journal of Economics、《经济研究》、《管理世界》和《世界经济》等国内外期刊，并被《新华文摘》和《人大复印报刊资料》等转载。