时间：2026年10月9日（周五）10:00-11:30

地点：北大国发院承泽园246教室

主持人：雷晓燕、易君健

参与老师：张丹丹、李玲、刘国恩、黄炜

主讲人：杨涵墨，中国人民大学人口与健康学院

摘要：Empirical research to date largely suggests that population policies around the world do not explain a majority of the global fertility decline. Notably, even China’s total fertility rate declined little after implementation of the One Child Policy in 1979 and 1980, but fertility then fell sharply, by more than a third, during the early 1990s. In this paper, we show that strengthening bureaucratic incentives under China’s “One Vote Veto” policy, which strictly prohibited career advancement for adherence failure, was instrumental in more “effective” implementation of the One Child Policy — and in its delayed impact on fertility. Using provincial variation in implementation timing, we find that the One Vote Veto policy explains nearly half of China’s total fertility rate decline during the 1990s, driving fertility below the replacement rate.

主讲人简介：杨涵墨，中国人民大学人口与健康学院讲师。北京大学国家发展研究院经济学博士，曾在哈佛大学、斯坦福大学从事博士后研究。研究方向为人口与健康经济学，主要聚焦生育、老龄、医疗卫生体制等政策议题。研究发表于International Economic Review，Lancet Public Health, JAMA Health Forum等高水平期刊，主持国家自然科学基金青年项目。（更多详细信息可参考杨涵墨老师个人主页：http://sph.ruc.edu.cn/jszy/yhm1/945095ff86594d04b46d9d20653c7440.htm）