主讲人： 陈梓霖, 高涓夏, 刘祥盟

主持人：徐晋涛（北京大学国家发展研究院）

时间：2025年5月30日（周五）上午10:30-12:00

地点：承泽园131教室

主讲人1：陈梓霖  （国发院22级博士生）

题目：Voluntary Carbon Market in China

摘要：Voluntary carbon credits are issued based on the difference between actual and ex ante baseline-projected emissions. This study evaluates the impact of 69 voluntary afforestation and improved forest management projects in China, certified under Verra’s Verified Carbon Standard (VCS), on forest quality using remote sensing data from NASA MODIS products. Applying the synthetic control method, we find that most projects did not lead to significant improvements in normalized difference vegetation index or net primary productivity. This suggests a discrepancy between ex ante baselines and ex post counterfactuals inferred from trends in control areas. Heterogeneity analysis indicates that projects located farther from cities or roads, and those in areas with lower land prices, tend to perform better—likely due to lower opportunity costs. To enhance the credibility and efficiency of voluntary carbon markets, baseline scenario setting should be standardized, and forest monitoring should be made more precise and comprehensive.

主讲人2： 高涓夏 （国发院22级博士生）

题目：Powering Rural Transformation: The Impact of Small Hydropower on Household Consumption and Agricultural Production

摘要： Expanding electricity access has profound effects on economic behavior in developing countries. Small hydropower (SHP), as a clean, decentralized, and flexible energy source, played a crucial role in the early stages of China's rural electrification. This paper evaluates the impacts of rural electrification policies on SHP development and subsequent changes in household consumption and agricultural production, leveraging data from over 1,500 counties across China. Using a difference-in-differences (DID) framework, we examine the effects of three waves of the Rural Primary Electrification Program implemented between 1980 and 2000. We find that counties subject to electrification reforms experienced a 25% increase in total installed SHP capacity compared to non-reform counties. Using these policy-induced variations as an instrumental variable for SHP expansion, we further explore its consequent effects. On the consumption side, increased SHP capacity significantly boosted household ownership of electric appliances, such as washing machines, refrigerator, and televisions, with heterogeneous effects across income groups. On the production side, enhanced electricity access increased the total power of agricultural machinery, expanded grain acreage, and raised crop output. Heterogeneity analysis further reveals that improved electricity access particularly promoted the cultivation of high-water-demand crops, such as rice, by facilitating greater agricultural labor input and mechanization. Overall, the findings highlight the broader economic transformations induced by rural electrification beyond mere access to electricity, underscoring the importance of clean decentralized energy in promoting rural development.

主讲人3：刘祥盟  （国发院22级博士生）

题目：Revealing Implicit Carbon Valuation by Local Governments: Evidence from Auto Sales Stimulus Programs in China

摘要：In the literature, there are few studies measuring the carbon evaluation by governments. In this paper, we attempt to estimate the implicit carbon evaluation by local governments in China through local stimulus programs for auto sales in 2020-2023. The additional auto sales induced by these programs generate environmental externalities, which implicitly reflect local governments' economic-carbon trade-offs. Our estimates show that across provinces, the carbon evaluations vary from less than $10 to nearly $500 per ton of carbon, exhibiting considerable regional heterogeneity. This study not only deepens our understanding of how governments balance economic and environmental goals, but also provides practical insights for future carbon policies.