第九讲 Search and Negotiation with Biased Beliefs in Consumer Credit Markets

时间：2025年5月27日周二 下午2点至3点30

地点/Venue：

线下：北京大学国家发展研究院承泽园校区132教室

线上：ZOOM会议（会议号: 897 2560 1400  密码: 938759）

主讲人/Speaker:     Sean Higgins

主持人/Host：       胡佳胤 Jiayin Hu

Title: Search and Negotiation with Biased Beliefs in Consumer Credit Markets

摘要/Abstract:

 How do biased beliefs about the distribution of interest rates affect search, negotiation, and loan terms in consumer credit markets? In collaboration with Chile’s financial regulator, we conducted a randomized controlled trial with 112,063 loan seekers where we elicited beliefs about the interest rate distribution, then showed treated participants a price comparison tool that we built using administrative data on the universe of consumer loans merged with borrower characteristics. The tool shows loan seekers a conditional distribution of interest rates based on similar loans obtained recently by similar borrowers. We find that most consumers thought interest rates were lower than they actually were, and the price comparison tool caused them to increase their expectations about the interest rate they would obtain by 55%. Most consumers also underestimated price dispersion, and our price comparison tool caused them to increase their estimates of dispersion by 68%. The price comparison tool did not cause people to search or apply at more institutions, but it did cause them to be 39% more likely to negotiate with their lender, to receive 13% more offers and 11% lower interest rates, and to be 5% more likely to take out a loan.

主讲人简介：

Sean Higgins is an Associate Professor of Finance (without tenure) at the Kellogg School of Management at Northwestern University. He is also an Associate Editor at the Review of Finance and an Affiliated Professor at the MIT Jameel Poverty Action Lab (J-PAL).

His research studies how technology reduces frictions in payments markets and consumer financial markets, and the effects of reducing these frictions on households and small firms in emerging economies. Within consumer financial markets, Sean has a set of papers on frictions that prevent households from saving, and a second set of papers and projects on credit market frictions. His papers employ natural experiments or randomized controlled trials (RCTs) for identification, and generally use a combination of confidential (often transaction-level) administrative data and survey data.

Sean teaches Entrepreneurial Finance and Venture Capital to MBA students, and won the Sidney J. Levy Teaching Award. He was named a Poets&Quants 2024 Best 40-Under-40 MBA Professor. He also co-founded and co-organize the Webinar in Finance and Development (WEFIDEV), which hosts webinars and an annual in-person conference to enable junior researchers to share both early-stage and more-polished research on finance and development. The 2025 WEFIDEV-RFS-CEPR Conference on Finance and Development features a dual-submission option with the Review of Financial Studies.