主讲人：郭伯威（中国人民大学）

题目：External Signals, Strategic Adaptation and Competitive Dynamics

主持人：邢剑炜（北京大学国家发展研究院）

时间：2025年5月9日（周五）上午10:30-12:00

地点：承泽园131教室

摘要：

This paper investigates how external market signals--such as market concentration and spot market prices--drive firms' strategic adaptation and reshape competitive dynamics in electricity markets. Drawing on data from the Guangdong electricity market in China, we deploy an empirically tractable firm-level pricing model to assess whether observed firm behavior aligns with Cournot competition or tacit collusion. Our analysis reveals that the market exhibits two distinct competitive states--Cournot and collusive--and dynamically transitions between them. Next, we employ a Markov-switching model with time-varying transition probabilities to identify the key factors influencing these transitions. The results demonstrate that changes in market concentration and spot market prices have directional effects on state shifts. Furthermore, we introduce an infinitely repeated game-theoretic model to elucidate the underlying mechanisms driving these adaptations, showing that despite the complexity of the emerging market, the observed transitions conform to Nash equilibrium. Our study provides deeper insights into the causal relationships that govern market dynamics and offers valuable guidance for policymakers in designing effective regulatory frameworks in evolving electricity markets.

主讲人介绍：

Bowei Guo is an associate professor at the School of Applied Economics at Renmin University of China, and an associate researcher at the Energy Policy Research Group at University of Cambridge. He received my PhD from the Faculty of Economics at University of Cambridge. His research fields include Energy and Environmental Economics, and Applied Econometrics. He is currently working on topics related to carbon pricing, consumer behaviours in electricity markets, consumer's willingness to pay for environmental goods, market design, market efficiency and market power in Chinese electricity markets, and economic and energy restructuring towards carbon neutrality. His previous research has been published in a number of leading energy and environmental economics journals in English, and leading economics journals in Chinese, and has been covered in major news outlets in China.