主讲人：Andrea Ferrero，Oxford University

题目：Capital Flows and Exchange Rates: A Quantitative Assessment of the Dilemma Hypothesis

主持人：余昌华、薛思帆

时间：2025年4月29日（周二）下午16:00-17:30（北京时间）

线上讲座：Join Zoom Meeting

https://us06web.zoom.us/j/85472026457?pwd=dhMV8inZSom7wNnpvSfxaGI3ki80BZ.1

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Passcode: 880681

摘要：

In response to an unanticipated monetary policy tightening in the US, credit spreads of a typical small open economy increase, while real GDP and exports fall despite a depreciation of the local currency. Thus, the financial channel of the transmission of monetary policy shocks across countries dominates over the traditional expenditure-switching effect. The dominant role of the reserve currency in trade and global financial transactions can account for the evidence in an otherwise standard two-country open economy model with nominal and real rigidities. Yet, even in the presence of a global financial cycle, the exchange rate regime matters. In particular, a peg substantially increases macroeconomic volatility. The introduction of an additional policy instrument to manage capital flows dampens economic fluctuations. A tax on domestic credit achieves nearly equivalent results. Both these instruments can insulate the effects of foreign monetary policy shocks on real economic activity in a fixed exchange rate regime, but not on inflation.

主讲人介绍：

Andrea Ferrero is a Professor of Economics in the Department of Economics at the University of Oxford and the Levine Fellow in Economics at Trinity College Oxford, where he teaches undergraduate and graduate macroeconomics. He holds a BA in Economics from Bocconi University, an MSc in Economics from Universitat Pompeu Fabra, and a Phd in Economics from New York University. His research interests are in the areas of Monetary Economics and International Macroeconomics. Among other topics, he has worked on policy options in a currency union, the determinants and implications of global imbalances, and the macroeconomic impact of the Fed unconventional policies. His research has appeared in top professional outlets, including the American Economic Review, the Economic Journal, and the Journal of Monetary Economics. Prof. Ferrero is a CEPR Research Fellow Associate and currenty serves as an associate Editor for Journal of International Economics.