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国际经济学workshop: The Macroeconomic Effects of Cash Transfers: Evidence from Brazil
发布日期：2024-05-28 12:00 来源：
主讲人：Wataru Miyamoto（HKU Business School）
主持人：余昌华（北京大学国家发展研究院）
时间：2024年5月28日（周二）上午10:30-12:00（北京时间）
地点：245教室
摘要：
This paper provides new evidence on the macroeconomic impact of cash transfers in developing countries. Using a Bartik-style identification strategy, the paper documents that Brazil’s Bolsa Familia transfer program leads to a large and persistent increase in relative state-level GDP, formal employment, and informal employment. A state receiving 1% of GDP in extra transfers grows 2.2ppts faster in the first year, with R$100,000 of extra transfers generating five formal-equivalent jobs, half of which are informal. Consistent with a demand-side mechanism, the effects are concentrated in non-tradable sectors. However, an open-economy New Keynesian model only partially captures the high multipliers estimated.
主讲人介绍：
Wataru Miyamoto is an associate professor in the HKU Business School. He joined the University of Hong Kong in 2018. His research interests include empirical macroeconomics and international macroeconomics. He received his Ph.D. in Economics from Columbia University in 2014.
Prof. Miyamoto works on business cycles, international macroeconomics, fiscal and monetary policies, and his publications apppear in Journal of International Economics, Review of Economics and Statistics, American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, Journal of Monetary Economics and International Economic Review.
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首页
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国际经济学workshop: The Macroeconomic Effects of Cash Transfers: Evidence from Brazil
发布日期：2024-05-28 12:00 来源：
主讲人：Wataru Miyamoto（HKU Business School）
主持人：余昌华（北京大学国家发展研究院）
时间：2024年5月28日（周二）上午10:30-12:00（北京时间）
地点：245教室
摘要：
This paper provides new evidence on the macroeconomic impact of cash transfers in developing countries. Using a Bartik-style identification strategy, the paper documents that Brazil’s Bolsa Familia transfer program leads to a large and persistent increase in relative state-level GDP, formal employment, and informal employment. A state receiving 1% of GDP in extra transfers grows 2.2ppts faster in the first year, with R$100,000 of extra transfers generating five formal-equivalent jobs, half of which are informal. Consistent with a demand-side mechanism, the effects are concentrated in non-tradable sectors. However, an open-economy New Keynesian model only partially captures the high multipliers estimated.
主讲人介绍：
Wataru Miyamoto is an associate professor in the HKU Business School. He joined the University of Hong Kong in 2018. His research interests include empirical macroeconomics and international macroeconomics. He received his Ph.D. in Economics from Columbia University in 2014.
Prof. Miyamoto works on business cycles, international macroeconomics, fiscal and monetary policies, and his publications apppear in Journal of International Economics, Review of Economics and Statistics, American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, Journal of Monetary Economics and International Economic Review.
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