时间：2026年11月20日（周五）10:00-11:30

地点：北大国发院承泽园246教室

主持人：雷晓燕、易君健

参与老师：张丹丹、李玲、刘国恩、黄炜

主讲人：Anson Zhou，Business School, The University of Hong Kong

摘要：Households disagree about whether a larger population raises living standards (Romerians or lowers them (Malthusians). I embed this disagreement in a fertility model with dynastic altruism, cultural transmission, and semi-endogenous productivity dynamics. Two forces

sustain incorrect beliefs in the long run. First, differential fertility generates evolutionary selection, potentially favoring the wrong worldview. Second, aggregate fertility shapes the population path, which can render productivity observations uninformative. Together, these forces produce Malthusian cycles and Romerian information traps. In a calibrated illustration, inherited disagreement delays takeoff by centuries.

主讲人简介：Dr. Anson Linshuo Zhou has been an assistant professor in the HKU business school since 2023. He obtained his Ph.D. in Economics from the University of Wisconsin-Madison in 2022. Anson’s research interest lies in macroeconomics and labor economics, with a particular focus on fertility, human capital, inequality, and intergenerational mobility.（更多详细信息可参考Anson Linshuo Zhou老师个人主页：https://www.hkubs.hku.hk/people/anson-zhou/）