主讲人：Daisuke Adachi，Aarhus University

题目：Rails, Risks, and Resilience: A Dynamic Spatial Equilibrium Analysis with Catastrophic Natural Disaster

参与老师：余昌华、薛思帆

时间：2026年9月29日（周二）上午10:00-11:30（北京时间）

地点：承泽园245教室

摘要：

High-speed railway networks promote economic linkages between regions, yet catastrophic natural disasters can disrupt these networks. We develop a dynamic stochastic spatial equilibrium model with regional input sourcing, endogenous prices, and gradual migration. Disasters temporarily reduce regional productivity and raise firms’ input-sourcing costs by disrupting the railway network. We apply the model to Japan’s Tokai Trough Earthquake (TTE) and the Chuo Shinkansen (CS) maglev railway project. We calibrate productivity recovery and network disruption from evidence on the 2011 Tohoku Earthquake. The model qualitatively reproduces the observed slow population decline and wage overshoot in affected regions. The population-weighted steady-state effect of TTE exposure is a welfare loss equal to 6.9% of permanent consumption. Moreover, the loss extends to regions far from the epicenter through production linkages. The CS delivers a welfare gain of 3.0% in the earthquake-exposed economy and 2.0% in the no-earthquake benchmark, suggesting a CS redundancy premium of 1.0 percentage points.

主讲人介绍：

Daisuke Adachi is an Associate Professor of Economics at the Department of Economics and Business Economics, Aarhus University. He is also a Specially Appointed Fellow at the Research Institute of Economy, Trade and Industry (RIETI) in Tokyo and a research affiliate at RFBerlin. His research lies at the intersection of international trade and labor economics. He studies how automation and globalization shape employment, wages, and the skills of workers. His work has appeared in leading journals, including the Journal of Labor Economics, the Journal of Monetary Economics, and the Review of Economics and Statistics.His current projects examine lifelong education as a response to offshoring risk, firm-specific training and career development, monopsony in two-sided matching markets, the resolution of dismissal disputes, and infrastructure investment under natural disaster risk. He leads the Carlsberg Foundation Semper Ardens Accelerate project "Automation and Skill Development in the Global Economy" (2026–2030). He received his Ph.D. in Economics from Yale University in 2021, and his B.A. and M.A. in Economics from the University of Tokyo.