主讲人：Ekkehard Ernst，国际劳工组织

时间：2026年3月25日上午10:30-12:00

地点：北京大学国家发展研究院承泽园校区249教室

题目：AI and jobs. Insights from a recent review

内容简介：Generative AI (GenAI) is altering work processes, task composition, and organizational design, yet its effects on employment and the macroeconomy remain unresolved. In this review, we synthesize theory and empirical evidence at three levels. First, we trace the evolution from aggregate production frameworks to task- and expertise-based models and organizational perspectives. Second, we quantitatively review and compare (ex-ante) AI exposure measures on jobs and occupations from multiple studies and find convergence towards high-wage jobs. Third, we assemble ex-post evidence of AI's impact on employment from randomized controlled trials (RCTs), field experiments, and digital trace data (e.g., online labor platforms, software repositories), complemented by partial coverage of surveys and vacancy studies. To better differentiate the reviewed studies by their observed outcomes, we introduce a classification that distinguishes simple from complex tasks using four dimensions: knowledge, clarity of goal, interdependence, and context requirements. Across the reviewed studies, productivity gains are sizable but context-dependent—on the order of $\sim$20--60\% in controlled RCTs, and 15-30\% in field experiments. Novice workers tend to benefit more from LLMs in simple tasks. Across complex tasks, evidence is mixed on whether low or high-skilled workers benefit more. Digital trace data show substitution between humans and machines in writing/translation alongside rising demand for AI, with mild evidence of declining demand for novice workers. A more substantial decrease in demand for novice jobs across AI-complementary work emerges from recent studies using surveys, platform payment records, or administrative data. Research gaps include the focus on simple tasks in experiments, the limited diversity of LLMs studied, and technology-centric AI exposure measures that overlook adoption dynamics and whether exposure translates into substitution, productivity gains, erode or increase expertise.

主讲人简介：Ekkehard Ernst is Chief of the Macro-economic policies and jobs unit at the International Labour Organization where he signs responsible for the World Employment and Social Outlook Trends report, ILO’s flagship report on global labour market developments. His work focuses on the implications of artificial intelligence, demographic change and globalization for the future of work, including in developing countries, as well as on the transition to a sustainable society. Ekkehard has international experience at the OECD and the European Central Bank. He is member of various advisory boards, including the European Parliament’s International Advisory Board of the Science and Technology Committee, the UK’s Productivity Insight Network, Pillars, CEPS, The Conference Board, and the Economists Network of the German Ministry of Collaboration and Development. He holds a PhD from the Ecole des Hautes Etudes en Sciences Sociales (Paris).