Survival Beliefs, Life Cycle Saving, and Wealth Accumulation

时间：2022年10月21日（周五）10:00-11:30

地点：北京大学国家发展研究院承泽园院区 246教室

主持人：雷晓燕、易君健

参与老师：赵耀辉、李玲、刘国恩、张丹丹、黄炜

主讲人：张泉（北京大学国家发展研究院学生）

摘要：This paper studies how survival beliefs affect life-cycle decisions. We document that survival is underestimated (overestimated) by the young (old), and that rural residents not only have a shorter lifespan but are more pessimistic about their remaining life expectancy. A standard life-cycle model calibrating to survival beliefs shows that the age pattern of belief bias would cause the young to undersave and the old to dissave slower. Given the same income process, urban-rural differences in survival beliefs can explain about one-third of their accumulated wealth disparities, with about 75% driven by the survival underestimation among rural residents. The insufficient adjustment of survival beliefs to new information contributes to survival belief bias's age pattern. In line with the model results, consumption does not increase in response to disease onsets that lead to a short life span but do not change beliefs, thus resulting in oversaving. Cross-sectional regressions support the model prediction: those who overestimate their survival chances tend to work harder, expect to retire later, and save more. This study provides evidence on a new health-wealth channel, namely time preference caused by survival belief differences, which could help the broader assessment of the health-wealth relationship.

主讲人简介：张泉，北京大学国家发展研究院20级研究生，研究领域为劳动与健康经济学。