近日，国家发展研究院张帆教授、余淼杰教授及其指导的2016级博士生金洋和中国发展研究基金会俞建拖研究员合作撰写的论文“The Effect of RMB Internationalization on Belt and Road Initiative: Evidence from Bilateral Swap Agreements”被SSCI期刊Emerging Markets Finance and Trade接受。

论文简介：

这篇文章评估了人民币国际化对于中国与一带一路国家间经济合作的影响。作者搜集了2000到2016年间所有国家间的双边货币互换协议，检验了双边互换协议对于中国和其它国家间的双边贸易流的影响。基于引力方程，作者发现互换协议对于双边贸易有显著的促进作用。在基准结果中，互换协议的签订将使签订双方的贸易量提升30.4%。对于一带一路国家，这一作用甚至更强。该作用在同的变量度量方式和估计方法稳健。因此从对贸易的促进作用来看，人民币互换协议的发展有显著的正面作用。

This paper evaluates the implication of RMB internationalization on economic integration between China and its partners, especially for Belt and Road countries. We collected data of all bilateral swap agreements between 2000 and 2016, and empirically explored the role of bilateral swap agreements playing in the bilateral trade flows between China and its partner countries. We examined the effects in gravity equation and found a significant positive effect of swap agreements on trade. In our benchmark model, the negotiations of swap agreement would improve 30.4% of bilateral trade values between China and its partners. For Belt and Road countries, the effect is even stronger. This effect is both statistically and economically significant. It is also robust on alternative measure of swap agreement and alternative estimation method. We argue that RMB swap agreements are beneficial for the economic integration between China and Belt and Road countries through facilitating bilateral trade.

期刊介绍：

《Emerging Markets Finance and Trade》是由Taylor & Francis出版社出版，致力于发表高质量和及时的新兴市场经济体相关的实证研究，为SSCI来源期刊。