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林毅夫教授等20位学者致信G20领导人：用更多资源帮助贫困国家
发布日期：2020-04-01 11:32 来源：
编者按
二十国集团（G20）领导人应对新冠肺炎特别峰会于3月26日在北京举行。就新冠疫情，林毅夫教授和其他19位国际著名经济学家和公共卫生专家，包括4位诺奖获得者和多位前世行首席经济学家，给二十国集团领导人写了一封公开信，呼吁各国团结合作来共同应对新冠疫情和经济危机。本译文转载自《复旦金融评论》，英文原文请查看文末。
二十国集团领导人：
发达国家现已开始看到COVID-19疫情全球大流行的影响，而大多数国家的情况将会进一步恶化。但是，在新兴经济体和发展中经济体延迟采取紧急措施将导致难以想象的公共卫生和社会影响。这些影响将在未来几十年困扰我们。G20必须立即采取行动。
在发达经济体艰难应对COVID-19疫情传播的同时，新兴国家和发展中国家正面临着对人类生命、社会凝聚力和经济破坏的前所未有的集体威胁。新冠病毒目前正逼近卫生系统脆弱和机构薄弱的国家，有可能造成大量死亡。全球7000万流离失所者的情况更是如此。全球各国竭力抗疫，巨大的经济损失将不可避免。随着疫情蔓延，人们将出于恐惧而迁移，因而导致社会动荡、暴力和安全问题。此外，如果一些国家抗疫失败，新冠病毒可能成为地方性流行病，在地区和全球各地产生一波又一波新的破坏性疫情。
在一个正快速关闭的窗口期内，我们要确保至少给这些国家一个管理危机的战斗机会，并在这条可能很长的隧道尽头提供一些通向光明的指引。非洲、南亚和中南美洲仍处于一个可能漫长的流行病周期的开端。截至撰写本文时，非洲54个国家中已有43个出现确诊新冠病毒感染病例记录。在过去8天中，确诊病例数增加了六倍。也门和叙利亚也刚刚加入名单。
正如富裕国家的政府正努力保护其最弱势的公民一样，它们既有义务也有切身利益保护弱势国家。全球性的抗疫必须在公共卫生和经济政策两条战线上展开。在公共卫生方面，我们必须立即支持世界卫生组织（WHO），并支持医疗响应管理的国内机构，保障卫生和其他基本物质的物流和供应链。与此同时，我们必须立即加快全球发现疫苗和治疗方法的努力，并将他们在全世界公平地生产和分配。我们还必须向面临毁灭性财政支出和大规模资本外流的国家提供紧急资源。这些国家遭受的经济影响将远远大于全球金融危机期间的任何情况。由于财政空间有限、债务水平高企和外部资本所剩无几，它们保护本国人口的能力非常有限。
当务之急，我们应确保世卫组织有足够的资源继续领导全球响应。整个联合国系统以及相关的国际金融机构——在两次人为灾难和大萧条之后建立的世界银行（World Bank）和国际货币基金组织（IMF）——将受到前所未有的考验。
抗击疫情的资金缺口亟待填补。全球备灾监测委员会已提出至少80亿美元的紧急资金要求。其中 20亿美元用于加强世卫组织的应急和备灾响应，7.5亿美元用于诊断，3 0亿美元用于研发、分布式制造和交付疫苗，还有22.5亿美元用于预防和治疗COVID-19的药物。
当然，应对经济影响所需要的努力将是一个完全不同的量级。到目前为止，恢复美国经济已花费了2万亿美元——我们只能想象让那些因大宗商品价格、旅游业收入和汇款量崩溃而正在分崩离析的国家恢复元气，以及保护那些最脆弱的国家所需要付出的代价。世界银行和国际货币基金组织已经做出了令人欢迎的快速反应，但所需要的资源量级巨大。我们需要找到全新的、创造性的方式，利用全球金融力量来支持这些机构和受影响的国家。
作为代表我们专业领域的20名医疗专家和经济学家，我们在此敦促G20首脑，紧急提供必要的资源，以减少人类生命的损失，并为最脆弱的人们提供支持。与无所作为将造成的社会和经济成本相比，所需的投入微不足道。如果我们不能力挽狂澜，将会受到历史的严厉审判。
签署人：
考希克·巴苏（Kaushik Basu），世界银行前首席经济学家，国际经济协会主席；美国康奈尔大学教授
埃里克·伯格洛夫(Eric Berglöf)，欧洲复兴开发银行前首席经济学家；伦敦政治经济学院教授
蒂姆· 贝斯利（Tim Besley），国际经济协会前主席；伦敦政治经济学院教授
曹文凯（Victor Dzau），美国国家医学科学院院长
杰里米·法拉（Jeremy Farrar），英国惠康基金会负责人
艾哈迈德·贾拉尔（Ahmed Galal），埃及前财政部长
谢尔盖·古里耶夫（Sergei Guriev），欧洲复兴开发银行前首席经济学家；巴黎政治大学教授
本特·霍姆斯特罗姆（Bengt Holmstrom），2016年诺贝尔经济学奖得主；
安妮·克鲁格（Anne Krueger），世界银行前首席经济学家；约翰·霍普金斯大学教授
林毅夫（Justin Yifu Lin），世界银行前首席经济学家; 北京大学教授；
诺拉·拉斯蒂格（Nora Lustig），拉丁美洲和中美洲经济协会的创始人；杜兰大学教授
恩戈齐·奥孔约·伊维拉（Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala），世界银行前董事总经理；尼日利亚前财政部长
克里斯托弗·皮萨里德斯（Christopher Pissarides） ，2010年诺贝尔经济学奖得主，伦敦政治经济学院教授
丹尼·罗德里克（Dani Rodrik），国际经济协会新任主席，哈佛大学教授
迈克尔·斯宾塞（Michael Spence），2001年诺贝尔经济学奖获得者；纽约大学教授
尼克·斯特恩（Nick Stern），世界银行和欧洲复兴开发银行前首席经济学家；伦敦政治经济学院教授
约瑟夫·斯蒂格利茨（Joseph Stiglitz），2001年诺贝尔经济学奖获得者；前世界银行首席经济学家；哥伦比亚大学教授
安德烈斯·贝拉斯科（Andrés Velasco），智利前财政部长；伦敦政治经济学院公共政策学院院长
伦纳德·万切肯（Leonard Wantchekon），非洲经济学院创始人；普林斯顿大学教授
魏尚进，亚洲开发银行前首席经济学家；哥伦比亚大学教授
文章来源于复旦金融评论
The COVID-19 pandemic: A letter to G20 leaders
Erik Berglöf, Jeremy Farrar 26 March 2020
The COVID-19 pandemic is a two-pronged health and economic crisis, and requires a two-pronged response. Ahead of an extraordinary meeting of G20 Leaders, this letter signed by 20 economists and global health experts has one simple message: this crisis is global and requires unprecedented cooperation across countries and disciplines.
To G20 leaders,
Advanced countries have started now to see the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic, and there is worse to come for most countries. But delaying emergency measures in emerging and developing economies will lead to unimaginable health and social impacts which will come back to haunt us for decades. The G20 must act now.
As advanced economies struggle to cope with the spread of COVID-19, emerging and developing countries are facing an unprecedented collective threat to human life, social cohesion and economic devastation. The virus is now reaching countries with fragile health systems and weak institutions, with the potential of creating huge numbers of deaths, particularly among the 70 million globally displaced people. Massive economic losses will be incurred as countries desperately try to cope, people will migrate out of fear as the epidemic takes hold leading to social disruption, violence and security issues. Moreover, in the likely case that they fail, the virus could become endemic, producing new waves of destructive outbreaks regionally and around the world.
We have a rapidly closing window to ensure that we give these countries at least a fighting chance to manage the crisis and provide some light at the end of a what could be a long tunnel. Africa, South Asia and Central and South America are still at the very beginning of what could be a long epidemic cycle. As of this writing, 43 out of 54 countries in Africa have registered cases of the virus and there has been a six-fold increase in case numbers over the last 8 days. Yemen and Syria have just joined the list.
Just as governments in richer countries are trying to protect their most vulnerable citizens, they have both an obligation and a self-interest in shielding vulnerable countries. The fight must be waged globally on two fronts: public health and economic policy. On the health front, we must immediately support the World Health Organisation and shore up domestic institutions managing the healthcare response, guarantee logistics and supply chains for health and other essential goods. In parallel we must immediately accelerate the global effort to find vaccines and therapeutics, manufacture and distribute them fairly across the world.
We must also provide emergency resources to countries facing devastating fiscal outlays and massive capital outflows. The economic impact on these countries will be much greater than anything experienced during the global financial crisis. With little fiscal space, high debt levels and little external capital left, their capacity to protect their populations is very limited.
First and foremost, we should ensure that the WHO has sufficient resources to continue leading the global response. The entire UN system and the associated international financial institutions, the World Bank and the IMF, will be tested in a way that they have not been since they were created in the wake of two man-made catastrophes and the Great Depression.
There is an immediate funding gap to be filled for fighting the epidemic. The Global Preparedness Monitoring Board has requested at least $8 billion in emergency funding, including $2 billion to strengthen the WHO’s emergency and preparedness response, $0.75 billion for diagnostics, $3 billion for development, distributed manufacturing and delivery of vaccines, and $2.25 billion for therapeutic drugs to prevent and treat COVID-19.
The efforts to address the economic impact will, of course, require efforts of a completely different magnitude. It has taken 2trn dollars so far to try to fix the US economy – we can only imagine what it will take to fix the countries that are falling apart because of the collapse in commodity prices, tourism and remittances, and to protect those most vulnerable. The World Bank and the IMF have produced welcome quick responses, but what will be needed will be of a different order of magnitude. We need to find new and innovative ways to use the global financial muscle to back up these institutions and the countries affected.
We, as 20 engaged healthcare professionals and economists representing our professions, are now urging you, the leaders of the G20, to urgently provide the necessary resources to reduce the losses in human life and back up those most vulnerable. The required investment is minute compared to the social and economic costs of inaction. History will judge us harshly if we do not get this right.
Signatories
Kaushik Basu, former WB Chief Economist and President of International Economic Association; professor, Cornell
Erik Berglof, former EBRD Chief Economist; professor, LSE
Tim Besley, former President of the International Economic Association; professor, LSE
Victor Dzau, President, National Academy of Medicine
Jeremy Farrar, Director, Wellcome Trust
Ahmed Galal, former Finance Minister, Egypt
Sergei Guriev, former EBRD Chief Economist; professor, Sciences Po
Bengt Holmstrom, Nobel Laureate; professor, MIT
Anne Krueger, former World Bank Chief Economist; professor, Johns Hopkins
Justin Yifu Lin, former WB Chief Economist; professor, Beijing University
Nora Lustig, former President of Latin American and Caribbean Economic Association; professor, Tulane
Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala, former Managing Director, World Bank; and finance minister, Nigeria.
Christopher Pissarides, Nobel Laureate, professor, LSE.
Dani Rodrik, Incoming President, International Economic Association, professor, Harvard
Michael Spence, Nobel Laureate; professor, New York University
Nick Stern, former WB and EBRD Chief Economist; professor, LSE
Joseph Stiglitz, Nobel Laureate and former WB Chief Economist, professor, Columbia
Andrés Velasco, former finance minister, Chile; Dean. LSE School of Public Policy
Leonard Wantchekon, founder African School of Economics; professor, Princeton
Shangjin Wei, former ADB Chief Economist; professor, Columbia
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林毅夫教授等20位学者致信G20领导人：用更多资源帮助贫困国家
发布日期：2020-04-01 11:32 来源：
编者按
二十国集团（G20）领导人应对新冠肺炎特别峰会于3月26日在北京举行。就新冠疫情，林毅夫教授和其他19位国际著名经济学家和公共卫生专家，包括4位诺奖获得者和多位前世行首席经济学家，给二十国集团领导人写了一封公开信，呼吁各国团结合作来共同应对新冠疫情和经济危机。本译文转载自《复旦金融评论》，英文原文请查看文末。
二十国集团领导人：
发达国家现已开始看到COVID-19疫情全球大流行的影响，而大多数国家的情况将会进一步恶化。但是，在新兴经济体和发展中经济体延迟采取紧急措施将导致难以想象的公共卫生和社会影响。这些影响将在未来几十年困扰我们。G20必须立即采取行动。
在发达经济体艰难应对COVID-19疫情传播的同时，新兴国家和发展中国家正面临着对人类生命、社会凝聚力和经济破坏的前所未有的集体威胁。新冠病毒目前正逼近卫生系统脆弱和机构薄弱的国家，有可能造成大量死亡。全球7000万流离失所者的情况更是如此。全球各国竭力抗疫，巨大的经济损失将不可避免。随着疫情蔓延，人们将出于恐惧而迁移，因而导致社会动荡、暴力和安全问题。此外，如果一些国家抗疫失败，新冠病毒可能成为地方性流行病，在地区和全球各地产生一波又一波新的破坏性疫情。
在一个正快速关闭的窗口期内，我们要确保至少给这些国家一个管理危机的战斗机会，并在这条可能很长的隧道尽头提供一些通向光明的指引。非洲、南亚和中南美洲仍处于一个可能漫长的流行病周期的开端。截至撰写本文时，非洲54个国家中已有43个出现确诊新冠病毒感染病例记录。在过去8天中，确诊病例数增加了六倍。也门和叙利亚也刚刚加入名单。
正如富裕国家的政府正努力保护其最弱势的公民一样，它们既有义务也有切身利益保护弱势国家。全球性的抗疫必须在公共卫生和经济政策两条战线上展开。在公共卫生方面，我们必须立即支持世界卫生组织（WHO），并支持医疗响应管理的国内机构，保障卫生和其他基本物质的物流和供应链。与此同时，我们必须立即加快全球发现疫苗和治疗方法的努力，并将他们在全世界公平地生产和分配。我们还必须向面临毁灭性财政支出和大规模资本外流的国家提供紧急资源。这些国家遭受的经济影响将远远大于全球金融危机期间的任何情况。由于财政空间有限、债务水平高企和外部资本所剩无几，它们保护本国人口的能力非常有限。
当务之急，我们应确保世卫组织有足够的资源继续领导全球响应。整个联合国系统以及相关的国际金融机构——在两次人为灾难和大萧条之后建立的世界银行（World Bank）和国际货币基金组织（IMF）——将受到前所未有的考验。
抗击疫情的资金缺口亟待填补。全球备灾监测委员会已提出至少80亿美元的紧急资金要求。其中 20亿美元用于加强世卫组织的应急和备灾响应，7.5亿美元用于诊断，3 0亿美元用于研发、分布式制造和交付疫苗，还有22.5亿美元用于预防和治疗COVID-19的药物。
当然，应对经济影响所需要的努力将是一个完全不同的量级。到目前为止，恢复美国经济已花费了2万亿美元——我们只能想象让那些因大宗商品价格、旅游业收入和汇款量崩溃而正在分崩离析的国家恢复元气，以及保护那些最脆弱的国家所需要付出的代价。世界银行和国际货币基金组织已经做出了令人欢迎的快速反应，但所需要的资源量级巨大。我们需要找到全新的、创造性的方式，利用全球金融力量来支持这些机构和受影响的国家。
作为代表我们专业领域的20名医疗专家和经济学家，我们在此敦促G20首脑，紧急提供必要的资源，以减少人类生命的损失，并为最脆弱的人们提供支持。与无所作为将造成的社会和经济成本相比，所需的投入微不足道。如果我们不能力挽狂澜，将会受到历史的严厉审判。
签署人：
考希克·巴苏（Kaushik Basu），世界银行前首席经济学家，国际经济协会主席；美国康奈尔大学教授
埃里克·伯格洛夫(Eric Berglöf)，欧洲复兴开发银行前首席经济学家；伦敦政治经济学院教授
蒂姆· 贝斯利（Tim Besley），国际经济协会前主席；伦敦政治经济学院教授
曹文凯（Victor Dzau），美国国家医学科学院院长
杰里米·法拉（Jeremy Farrar），英国惠康基金会负责人
艾哈迈德·贾拉尔（Ahmed Galal），埃及前财政部长
谢尔盖·古里耶夫（Sergei Guriev），欧洲复兴开发银行前首席经济学家；巴黎政治大学教授
本特·霍姆斯特罗姆（Bengt Holmstrom），2016年诺贝尔经济学奖得主；
安妮·克鲁格（Anne Krueger），世界银行前首席经济学家；约翰·霍普金斯大学教授
林毅夫（Justin Yifu Lin），世界银行前首席经济学家; 北京大学教授；
诺拉·拉斯蒂格（Nora Lustig），拉丁美洲和中美洲经济协会的创始人；杜兰大学教授
恩戈齐·奥孔约·伊维拉（Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala），世界银行前董事总经理；尼日利亚前财政部长
克里斯托弗·皮萨里德斯（Christopher Pissarides） ，2010年诺贝尔经济学奖得主，伦敦政治经济学院教授
丹尼·罗德里克（Dani Rodrik），国际经济协会新任主席，哈佛大学教授
迈克尔·斯宾塞（Michael Spence），2001年诺贝尔经济学奖获得者；纽约大学教授
尼克·斯特恩（Nick Stern），世界银行和欧洲复兴开发银行前首席经济学家；伦敦政治经济学院教授
约瑟夫·斯蒂格利茨（Joseph Stiglitz），2001年诺贝尔经济学奖获得者；前世界银行首席经济学家；哥伦比亚大学教授
安德烈斯·贝拉斯科（Andrés Velasco），智利前财政部长；伦敦政治经济学院公共政策学院院长
伦纳德·万切肯（Leonard Wantchekon），非洲经济学院创始人；普林斯顿大学教授
魏尚进，亚洲开发银行前首席经济学家；哥伦比亚大学教授
文章来源于复旦金融评论
The COVID-19 pandemic: A letter to G20 leaders
Erik Berglöf, Jeremy Farrar 26 March 2020
The COVID-19 pandemic is a two-pronged health and economic crisis, and requires a two-pronged response. Ahead of an extraordinary meeting of G20 Leaders, this letter signed by 20 economists and global health experts has one simple message: this crisis is global and requires unprecedented cooperation across countries and disciplines.
To G20 leaders,
Advanced countries have started now to see the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic, and there is worse to come for most countries. But delaying emergency measures in emerging and developing economies will lead to unimaginable health and social impacts which will come back to haunt us for decades. The G20 must act now.
As advanced economies struggle to cope with the spread of COVID-19, emerging and developing countries are facing an unprecedented collective threat to human life, social cohesion and economic devastation. The virus is now reaching countries with fragile health systems and weak institutions, with the potential of creating huge numbers of deaths, particularly among the 70 million globally displaced people. Massive economic losses will be incurred as countries desperately try to cope, people will migrate out of fear as the epidemic takes hold leading to social disruption, violence and security issues. Moreover, in the likely case that they fail, the virus could become endemic, producing new waves of destructive outbreaks regionally and around the world.
We have a rapidly closing window to ensure that we give these countries at least a fighting chance to manage the crisis and provide some light at the end of a what could be a long tunnel. Africa, South Asia and Central and South America are still at the very beginning of what could be a long epidemic cycle. As of this writing, 43 out of 54 countries in Africa have registered cases of the virus and there has been a six-fold increase in case numbers over the last 8 days. Yemen and Syria have just joined the list.
Just as governments in richer countries are trying to protect their most vulnerable citizens, they have both an obligation and a self-interest in shielding vulnerable countries. The fight must be waged globally on two fronts: public health and economic policy. On the health front, we must immediately support the World Health Organisation and shore up domestic institutions managing the healthcare response, guarantee logistics and supply chains for health and other essential goods. In parallel we must immediately accelerate the global effort to find vaccines and therapeutics, manufacture and distribute them fairly across the world.
We must also provide emergency resources to countries facing devastating fiscal outlays and massive capital outflows. The economic impact on these countries will be much greater than anything experienced during the global financial crisis. With little fiscal space, high debt levels and little external capital left, their capacity to protect their populations is very limited.
First and foremost, we should ensure that the WHO has sufficient resources to continue leading the global response. The entire UN system and the associated international financial institutions, the World Bank and the IMF, will be tested in a way that they have not been since they were created in the wake of two man-made catastrophes and the Great Depression.
There is an immediate funding gap to be filled for fighting the epidemic. The Global Preparedness Monitoring Board has requested at least $8 billion in emergency funding, including $2 billion to strengthen the WHO’s emergency and preparedness response, $0.75 billion for diagnostics, $3 billion for development, distributed manufacturing and delivery of vaccines, and $2.25 billion for therapeutic drugs to prevent and treat COVID-19.
The efforts to address the economic impact will, of course, require efforts of a completely different magnitude. It has taken 2trn dollars so far to try to fix the US economy – we can only imagine what it will take to fix the countries that are falling apart because of the collapse in commodity prices, tourism and remittances, and to protect those most vulnerable. The World Bank and the IMF have produced welcome quick responses, but what will be needed will be of a different order of magnitude. We need to find new and innovative ways to use the global financial muscle to back up these institutions and the countries affected.
We, as 20 engaged healthcare professionals and economists representing our professions, are now urging you, the leaders of the G20, to urgently provide the necessary resources to reduce the losses in human life and back up those most vulnerable. The required investment is minute compared to the social and economic costs of inaction. History will judge us harshly if we do not get this right.
Signatories
Kaushik Basu, former WB Chief Economist and President of International Economic Association; professor, Cornell
Erik Berglof, former EBRD Chief Economist; professor, LSE
Tim Besley, former President of the International Economic Association; professor, LSE
Victor Dzau, President, National Academy of Medicine
Jeremy Farrar, Director, Wellcome Trust
Ahmed Galal, former Finance Minister, Egypt
Sergei Guriev, former EBRD Chief Economist; professor, Sciences Po
Bengt Holmstrom, Nobel Laureate; professor, MIT
Anne Krueger, former World Bank Chief Economist; professor, Johns Hopkins
Justin Yifu Lin, former WB Chief Economist; professor, Beijing University
Nora Lustig, former President of Latin American and Caribbean Economic Association; professor, Tulane
Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala, former Managing Director, World Bank; and finance minister, Nigeria.
Christopher Pissarides, Nobel Laureate, professor, LSE.
Dani Rodrik, Incoming President, International Economic Association, professor, Harvard
Michael Spence, Nobel Laureate; professor, New York University
Nick Stern, former WB and EBRD Chief Economist; professor, LSE
Joseph Stiglitz, Nobel Laureate and former WB Chief Economist, professor, Columbia
Andrés Velasco, former finance minister, Chile; Dean. LSE School of Public Policy
Leonard Wantchekon, founder African School of Economics; professor, Princeton
Shangjin Wei, former ADB Chief Economist; professor, Columbia
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