近日，林毅夫教授有两篇论文为国际经济学学术期刊接受。其中与波士顿大学苗建军教授、香港科技大学王鹏飞教授合作论文“Convergence, Financial Development, and Policy Analysis”被经济学国际一流期刊Economic Theory接受。

文章使用引入信贷约束的熊彼特世代交叠模型，考察了通货膨胀，经济增长与金融发展三者间的关系。在基准模型的框架下，货币是超中性的。当一个国家的金融发展超过一定的临界水平时，该国的经济将快速发展，缩小和世界技术前沿的差距，然后趋同于世界技术前沿的增长速度。否则该国的经济将陷入贫困陷阱，经济增长速度低于世界技术前沿的增长速度，该国的通货膨胀也将随着金融发展水平而下降。之后，文章研究了均衡条件下的最有效率的配置结果以及无效率的来源。最后，研究给出了一种货币政策和财政政策相结合的干预措施，使得市场均衡能够达到最有效率的状态。

文章英文摘要：
We study the relationship among inflation, economic growth, and financial development in a Schumpeterian overlapping-generations model with credit constraints. In the baseline case money is super-neutral. When the financial development exceeds some critical level, the economy catches up and then converges to the growth rate of the world technology frontier. Otherwise, the economy converges to a poverty trap with a growth rate lower than the frontier and with inflation decreasing with the level of financial development. We then study efficient allocation and identify the sources of inefficiency in a market equilibrium. We show that a particular combination of monetary and fiscal policies can make a market equilibrium attain the efficient allocation.

林毅夫教授另外一篇与中南财经政法大学龚强教授、中山大学张一林教授合作论文“Financial Structure, Industrial Structure, and Economic Development: A New Structural Economic Perspective”在经济学国际期刊The Manchester School上面发表。

文章研究了银行和股票市场在经济发展不同阶段的相对重要性。与以往的研究不同，文章提出了关于经济体需求侧的最优金融结构理论。由于不同国家在不同发展阶段具有不同的产业结构，而银行和股票市场服务于实体经济时具有不同的比较优势。研究结果表明，以银行为基础的金融结构更适用于发展中国家；而以股票市场为基础的金融结构更适用于发达国家。文章的研究结果与最近的实证事实一致，并为理解一个国家金融体系的结构变化提供了新的视角。

文章英文摘要：
We investigate the evolving relative importance of banks and equity markets during different stages of economic development. Unlike previous studies, we propose a demand‐side theory on the appropriate financial structure for an economy. We show that a bank‐based financial structure is more appropriate than a market‐based structure for developing countries, and that for developed countries, a market‐based financial structure is more appropriate than a bank‐based structure. This is due to the industrial structures of countries and the different advantages of banks and equity markets for serving the real economy. Our findings are consistent with recent empirical facts and provide new perspectives to understand the structural change of a country’s financial system.

撰稿人：蒋扬天