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sidenav header background[12月15日]雾霾经济学研讨会
发布日期：2016-12-12 03:32 来源：北京大学国家发展研究院
时间： 2016年12月15日（周四）下午 1:00pm-5:00pm
地点：北大国发院/中国经济研究中心 致福轩教室
题目：Why Smog Drives Up Housing Price: A Behavioral Explanation
主讲人：JUBO YAN (南洋理工大学)
摘要：Prediction of future utility is critical in making economic decisions. However, people often fail to correctly predict their future utility and hence suffer from “projection bias”. This bias is especially prominent when purchasing durable goods such as housing. In this paper, we link housing purchase behavior with air quality in the metropolitan area of Beijing and document projection bias in individual transactions. In theory, a highly polluted day cannot be considered as a signal that provides new information to the decision maker because housing purchase is a very important long term decision and pollution is a day to day phenomenon in the region. However, our main result suggests that the deal price on highly polluted days (AQI above 300) are 0.4% percent higher than the deal price on regular days. The result is supplemented by a survey study and web click data from housing agents that help us to identify possible explanations behind the projection bias. Given the large transaction volume and high housing price, we therefore conclude that pollution has a significant effect on housing transactions through projection bias which leads to inefficiency in the housing market. Policies aiming to debias the decision makers will improve social welfare level.
题目：Haze and Decision Making: A Natural Laboratory Experiment
主讲人: 周恕弘（Chew Soo Hong），新加坡国立大学讲席教授，国际经济计量学会院士（会士，Fellow）。
摘要： The adverse impact of haze on health and related economic outcomes has been extensively documented in the literature. This paper is a first attempt at investigating the effect of haze directly on decision making in a natural laboratory experiment over seven consecutive days with highly varying levels of Particulate Matters 2.5 (PM2.5) in Beijing during October 2012 before PM2.5 became more commonly used in China the next year. An increase in the level of haze yields an increase in risk aversion and ambiguity aversion when facing gain oriented uncertainty, but a decrease in aversion to risk involving losses and in the extent of Allais behavior. Subjects are more impatient when discounting in a remote time horizon, but not for tradeoffs over the near term. For other-regarding behavior, increased haze gives rise to more selfishness, greater sense of fairness, and less cooperativeness. In strategic thinking, increased haze leads to more deviations from what may be considered optimal in the second-price sealed bid auction and the p-Beauty game. These results are robust with respect to varying the time window over which we average the level of haze and provide a preferential foundation for several findings linking haze to real world economic phenomena including stock market, human capital, and crime.
题目：Smog in Our Brains: Gender Difference in the Impact of Exposure to Air Pollution on Cognitive Performance
主讲人：张欣，国发院在读博士
摘要：This paper studies the effects of contemporaneous and cumulative exposure to air pollution on cognitive performance based on a nationally representative survey in China. By merging a longitudinal sample at the individual level with local air quality data according to the exact dates and counties of interviews, we find that exposure to cumulative air pollution impedes both word and math scores of survey subjects. Contemporaneous exposure to air pollution lowers the scores of word tests. Interestingly, the negative effect is stronger for men than for women. In specific, old men perform worse in word tests and young men score poorer in math tests than their female counterparts when exposed to the same dose of air pollution.
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首页
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教学项目展开 / 收起
sidenav background教学项目
sidenav header background[12月15日]雾霾经济学研讨会
发布日期：2016-12-12 03:32 来源：北京大学国家发展研究院
时间： 2016年12月15日（周四）下午 1:00pm-5:00pm
地点：北大国发院/中国经济研究中心 致福轩教室
题目：Why Smog Drives Up Housing Price: A Behavioral Explanation
主讲人：JUBO YAN (南洋理工大学)
摘要：Prediction of future utility is critical in making economic decisions. However, people often fail to correctly predict their future utility and hence suffer from “projection bias”. This bias is especially prominent when purchasing durable goods such as housing. In this paper, we link housing purchase behavior with air quality in the metropolitan area of Beijing and document projection bias in individual transactions. In theory, a highly polluted day cannot be considered as a signal that provides new information to the decision maker because housing purchase is a very important long term decision and pollution is a day to day phenomenon in the region. However, our main result suggests that the deal price on highly polluted days (AQI above 300) are 0.4% percent higher than the deal price on regular days. The result is supplemented by a survey study and web click data from housing agents that help us to identify possible explanations behind the projection bias. Given the large transaction volume and high housing price, we therefore conclude that pollution has a significant effect on housing transactions through projection bias which leads to inefficiency in the housing market. Policies aiming to debias the decision makers will improve social welfare level.
题目：Haze and Decision Making: A Natural Laboratory Experiment
主讲人: 周恕弘（Chew Soo Hong），新加坡国立大学讲席教授，国际经济计量学会院士（会士，Fellow）。
摘要： The adverse impact of haze on health and related economic outcomes has been extensively documented in the literature. This paper is a first attempt at investigating the effect of haze directly on decision making in a natural laboratory experiment over seven consecutive days with highly varying levels of Particulate Matters 2.5 (PM2.5) in Beijing during October 2012 before PM2.5 became more commonly used in China the next year. An increase in the level of haze yields an increase in risk aversion and ambiguity aversion when facing gain oriented uncertainty, but a decrease in aversion to risk involving losses and in the extent of Allais behavior. Subjects are more impatient when discounting in a remote time horizon, but not for tradeoffs over the near term. For other-regarding behavior, increased haze gives rise to more selfishness, greater sense of fairness, and less cooperativeness. In strategic thinking, increased haze leads to more deviations from what may be considered optimal in the second-price sealed bid auction and the p-Beauty game. These results are robust with respect to varying the time window over which we average the level of haze and provide a preferential foundation for several findings linking haze to real world economic phenomena including stock market, human capital, and crime.
题目：Smog in Our Brains: Gender Difference in the Impact of Exposure to Air Pollution on Cognitive Performance
主讲人：张欣，国发院在读博士
摘要：This paper studies the effects of contemporaneous and cumulative exposure to air pollution on cognitive performance based on a nationally representative survey in China. By merging a longitudinal sample at the individual level with local air quality data according to the exact dates and counties of interviews, we find that exposure to cumulative air pollution impedes both word and math scores of survey subjects. Contemporaneous exposure to air pollution lowers the scores of word tests. Interestingly, the negative effect is stronger for men than for women. In specific, old men perform worse in word tests and young men score poorer in math tests than their female counterparts when exposed to the same dose of air pollution.
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