[10月21日]国际经济学workshop

发布日期：2016-10-17 05:37 来源：北京大学国家发展研究院

时间：2016年10月21日（周五）10：30－12：00 am

地点：北大国发院/中国经济研究中心小教室

主持人：余淼杰余昌华王歆

主讲人：王健

题目：Mood Swings and Business Cycles: Evidence from Sign Restrictions

摘要：This paper provides new evidence that bouts of optimism and pessimism are an important source of US business cycles. We isolate innovations in optimism or pessimism by using sign-restriction based identification schemes and document the extent to which such episodes explain macroeconomic fluctuations. Our results suggest that agents’ feelings of optimism and pessimism play an important role in US business cycles, accounting for about 30% of business cycle fluctuations in hours and output. Our identified optimism shocks are at least partially rational as total factor productivity is observed to rise 8-10 quarters after an initial bout of optimism. While this later finding is consistent with some previous findings in the news shock literature, we cannot rule out that such episodes reflect self-fulfilling beliefs. Our empirical findings are also consistent with the business-cycle features of US labor market variables such as unemployment, the job finding rate and job vacancies, providing further support to optimism shocks being an important source of US business cycles.

主讲人简介：

Wang Jian joins the Chinese University of Hong Kong (Shenzhen) as an associate professor of Economics in Spring 2016. Before joining the CUHK (Shenzhen), he worked as Senior Research Economist and Advisor at the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas from 2006 to 2016. His research interests include international finance, behavioral finance/economics, international macroeconomics, and monetary economics

主讲人的演讲论文和简历请见附件：

namwang2016

Jian_Wang