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sidenav header background[10月14日]劳动经济学workshop
发布日期：2016-10-11 09:23 来源：北京大学国家发展研究院
时间：2016年10月14日（周五）2：00－3：30 pm
地点：北大国发院/中国经济研究中心小教室
主持人：雷晓燕 张丹丹
主讲人：沈可（复旦大学社会发展与公共政策学院人口所）
题目: Government Policy and Global Fertility Change: A Reappraisal
摘要: In this paper, we offer a reexamination of the roles of government polices in global fertility change. We use an unbalanced cross-national panel dataset over the past three decades, between 1976 and 2014, for over 140 countries with information on their type of fertility policy and key indices of socioeconomic development available. Fixed-effects models are applied to tackle endogeneity bias resulting from time-invariant omitted characteristics such as religion and culture. We choose relative changes in fertility in the next year and in next five years as dependent variables instead of levels of fertility, to reduce the bias from reversed causality and to distinguish between short-term and long-term policy effects.
We show that on average, birth control policies have a weak impact on fertility change once socio-economic indicators are controlled. However, birth control policies play a more decisive role in accelerating fertility decline in the continents of Asia and Latin America than they do in other continents, particularly in the long term. Pronatalist policies exert a positive and immediate impact on fertility change, but such a positive impact vanishes in the long term. It is worth noting that pronatalist polices turn to be ineffective both in the short run and in the long run among lowest-low fertility countries, where TFRs have ever dropped below 1.5 children per woman. Based on our findings, we give the credit to family planning programs in Asia and Latin America, which have experienced a much faster fertility decline than anywhere else over the past half-century. Our results also suggest that governments in low fertility countries should not wait too long to initiate pronatalist policies, otherwise, the countries might be likely to be stuck in the “low fertility trap”.
主讲人简介：沈可，2011年获得北京大学经济学博士学位，现为复旦大学社会发展与公共政策学院人口所副教授。主要研究领域为人口老龄化、人口政策与老年健康，讲授“中国人口与发展”和“中国社会与经济转型”等全英文课程，已在Demographic Research，Social Science & Medicine，The Journal of Economics of Aging和《人口研究》等期刊发表多篇论文。
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教学项目展开 / 收起
sidenav background教学项目
sidenav header background[10月14日]劳动经济学workshop
发布日期：2016-10-11 09:23 来源：北京大学国家发展研究院
时间：2016年10月14日（周五）2：00－3：30 pm
地点：北大国发院/中国经济研究中心小教室
主持人：雷晓燕 张丹丹
主讲人：沈可（复旦大学社会发展与公共政策学院人口所）
题目: Government Policy and Global Fertility Change: A Reappraisal
摘要: In this paper, we offer a reexamination of the roles of government polices in global fertility change. We use an unbalanced cross-national panel dataset over the past three decades, between 1976 and 2014, for over 140 countries with information on their type of fertility policy and key indices of socioeconomic development available. Fixed-effects models are applied to tackle endogeneity bias resulting from time-invariant omitted characteristics such as religion and culture. We choose relative changes in fertility in the next year and in next five years as dependent variables instead of levels of fertility, to reduce the bias from reversed causality and to distinguish between short-term and long-term policy effects.
We show that on average, birth control policies have a weak impact on fertility change once socio-economic indicators are controlled. However, birth control policies play a more decisive role in accelerating fertility decline in the continents of Asia and Latin America than they do in other continents, particularly in the long term. Pronatalist policies exert a positive and immediate impact on fertility change, but such a positive impact vanishes in the long term. It is worth noting that pronatalist polices turn to be ineffective both in the short run and in the long run among lowest-low fertility countries, where TFRs have ever dropped below 1.5 children per woman. Based on our findings, we give the credit to family planning programs in Asia and Latin America, which have experienced a much faster fertility decline than anywhere else over the past half-century. Our results also suggest that governments in low fertility countries should not wait too long to initiate pronatalist policies, otherwise, the countries might be likely to be stuck in the “low fertility trap”.
主讲人简介：沈可，2011年获得北京大学经济学博士学位，现为复旦大学社会发展与公共政策学院人口所副教授。主要研究领域为人口老龄化、人口政策与老年健康，讲授“中国人口与发展”和“中国社会与经济转型”等全英文课程，已在Demographic Research，Social Science & Medicine，The Journal of Economics of Aging和《人口研究》等期刊发表多篇论文。
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