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Growth Economics——2015年春季学期双学位课程介绍
发布日期：2015-03-02 09:49 来源：北京大学国家发展研究院
Instructor：Prof. Gordon Liu
Students：Undergraduate Students
Course Title：Growth Economics (in English)
Term: Spring 2015
Time：3-6pm on Sundays, March 8-June 7, 2015
Weekly hours: 3
Credits：3
Prerequisite：English
Classroom: 北大二教405
TAs：
崔含笑
cuihanxiao@pku.edu.cn
188-1032-3551
何奇峰
hemiao_pku@126.com
137-1633-2329
孙烁琪
primenocrime@gmail.com
188-1051-9189
Instructor: Prof. Gordon Liu is a Yangtze River Scholar Professor of Economics at Peking University National School of Development (NSD), and Director of PKU China Center for Health Economic Research. His research interests include health and development economics, health reform, and pharmaceutical economics. Prior to PKU NSD, he once served as full-time faculty at USC, UNC Chapel Hill, and PKU Guanghua School of Management. He has taught courses as China in Transition, Managerial Economics, Macroeconomy and Health, and Health Economics.
教师简介： 刘国恩老师， 北京大学国家发展研究院经济学长江特聘教授、博士生导师，北大中国卫生经济研究中心主任，国务院国家医改专家咨询委委员。刘国恩教授曾执教于美国南加州大学，北卡大学，北大光华管理学院。曾讲授《China in Transition》，《Managerial Economics》，《宏观经济与健康投资》，《健康经济学》和《中国医疗体制改革》。
Email: gordonliu@nsd.pku.edu.cn；Tel: 6275-6963。
Course OverviewThe world economies have experienced the greatest divergence in economic growth in history since the Industrial Revolution. China, in particular, went through perhaps the most dramatic transitions, from leading the world economy for most of the agricultural era, to falling among the poorest economies in the late 70s, and then to upturning again with an
unprecedentedly high growth for the recent decades. While the world great divergence is well observed, large disputes remain on the key economic drivers and mechanisms for growth.
This course will provide undergraduate students with a systematic view of economic concepts, basic theories, analytic frameworks, and primary literature with empirical evidence that are essential to a full understanding of the most fundamental part for economic growth. Drawing upon the materials from the leading textbooks and literature, this course will have 12 central topics on growth for lectures, presentations, and discussions throughout a semester. For outcomes, this course expects students to gain a basic understanding of why and how growth matters, and what is known and what is not known from the literature on the driving forces of growth.
Course ObjectivesThis is a semester-long course, aiming at providing undergraduate students with a systematic view of economic concepts, basic theories, analytic frameworks, and empirical data and evidence from literature that are essential to a full understanding of the most fundamental part for economic growth.
Course TopicsTopic 1 The World Economic Growth and Great Divergence – from the Agricultural Era to Industrial Revolution
Today’s world as a whole is surely much more prosperous than ever before. In the meantime, it also has been accompanied with growing disparities in income and living conditions across the planet, leading to the largest income divergence ever in human history. How has the human income gap changed over time? What are the major drivers for income growth and distribution gaps? How to determine economic growth in an analytic framework from the conventional theory? What happened to the dynamics of China’s economy in history?
References
Henderson, J. V., A. Storeygard, and D. Weil, “Measuring Economic Growth from Outer Space,” American Economic Review, 2012 (2): 994-1028.
Lin, J. Y., “The Needham Puzzle: Why the Industrial Revolution Did Not Originate in China?” Economic Development and Cultural Change, 1995 (43): 269-292.
Huang, Y., “How Did China Take Off?”, Journal of Economic Perspectives, 2012 (26): 147-170.
Brandt, L., D. Ma, and T. G. Rawski, “From Divergence to Convergence: Reevaluating the History behind China's Economic Boom,” Journal of Economic Literature, 2014 (52): 45-123.
Pritchett, L., “Divergence, Big Time,” Journal of Economic Perspectives, 1997 (11): 3-17.
彭慕兰，《大分流：欧洲、中国及现代世界经济的发展》，史建云译，江苏人民出版社，2003年第1版。
罗伯特·巴罗，《经济增长的决定因素：跨国经验研究》，李剑译，中国人民大学出版社，2004年第1版。
蔡昉，“理解中国经济发展的过去、现在和将来——基于一个贯通的增长理论框架”，《经济研究》，2013年11期，第4-16页。
林毅夫，“李约瑟之谜、韦伯疑问和中国的奇迹——自宋以来的长期经济发展”，《北京大学学报（哲学社会科学版）》，2007年第44卷第4号，第5-22页。
德怀特·帕金斯，“从历史和国际的视角看中国的经济增长”，《经济学（季刊）》，2005年第4卷第4期，第981-912页。
Topic 2 Growth Model and Factors of Production: Physical Capital
How economists model economic growth in the context of conventional framework? What are the most fundamental factors of production in growth models? How is capital determined and how its nature and roles have been evolved over time in human history of economic growth? Are there some major problems with the conventional growth model settings?
References
Solow, R., “Technical Change and the Aggregate Production Function,” Review of Economics and Statistics, 1957 (39): 312-320.
Easterlin, R., “The World Standard of Living since 1800,” Journal of Economic Perspectives, 2000 (14): 7-26.
Acemoglu, D., “Theory, General Equilibrium, and Political Economy in Development Economics,” Journal of Economic Perspectives, 2010 (24): 17-32.
德怀特·波金斯、斯蒂芬·拉德勒、戴维·林道尔，“储蓄、投资和资本流动”，《发展经济学》，中国人民大学出版社，2013年第6版，第309-337页。
王志浩，“中国的储蓄过剩问题”，《大国经济之路》，中信出版社，2010年第1版，第123-136页。
臧文斌、刘国恩、徐菲、熊先军，“中国城镇居民基本医疗保险对家庭消费的影响”，《经济研究》，2012年第7期，第75-85页。
经济增长前沿课题组，“高投资、宏观成本与经济增长的持续性”，《经济研究》，2005年第10期，第12-23页。
吴忠群，“中国经济增长中消费和投资的确定”，《中国社会科学》，2002年第3期，第49-62页。
Topic 3 Growth Model and Factors of Production: Labor Supply and Population
What is the relationship between population, labor supply, and economic growth? What is the well-known Malthusian trap and why it was once popular and then collapsed later during the Industrial Revolution? How to model the roles of population and labor supply in income growth model? How did Malthusian theory influence the population control policies in China? What are the central driving forces for fertility transition and population growth in the long
run?
References
Bernard, A., and B. Meghan, “Who Wins the Olympic Games: Economic Resources and Medal Totals,” Review of Economics and Statistics, 2004 (86): 413-417.
Galor, O., and D. Weil, “Population, Technology, and Growth: from Malthusian Stagnation to the Development of Transition and Beyond,” American Economic Review, 2000 (90): 806-828.
Kremer, M., “Population Growth and Technological Change: One Million B.C. to 1990,” Quarterly Journal of Economics, 1993 (108): 681-716.
Soares, R. R., “Mortality Reductions, Educational Attainment, and Fertility Choice,” American Economic Review, 1989 (79): 177-183.
阿马蒂亚·森，“强制计划生育的有效程度有多大？”，《以自由看待发展》，任赜、于真译，中国人民大学出版社，2012年第1版，第219-223页。
陈鸣，“翼城人口特区，一个县封存25年的二胎试验”，《南方周末》，2010年10月15日。
刘国恩，“转变经济发展方式靠什么？”，《比较》，2013年第3期，第130-144页。
汪伟，“经济增长、人口结构变化与中国高储蓄”，《经济学（季刊）》，2010年第1期，第29-52页。
保罗·舒尔茨，“人口结构和储蓄：亚洲的经验证据及其对中国的意义”，《经济学（季刊）》，2005年第3期，第991-1018页。
蔡昉，“人口转变、人口红利与刘易斯转折点”，《经济研究》，2010年第4期，第4-13页。
Topic 4 Growth Models and Factors of Production: Human Capital
How does the quality of labor matter to production? How to measure labor quality from the perspective of education and health as two most critical human capitals in growth models? What are the similarities and differences between human capital and physical capital, and the relationship between health and education human capitals? How to predict the future potentials of human capitals in China’s economic growth?
References
Becker, G. S., Human Capital: A Theoretical and Empirical Analysis, with Special Reference to Education, 1994, Chicago: University of Chicago Press.
Acemoglu, D., and S. Johnson, “Disease and Development: the Effects of Life Expectancy on Economic Growth,” Journal of Political Economy, 2007 (115): 925-985.
Smith, J. P., “Healthy Bodies and Thick Wallets: The Dual Relation between Health and Economic Status,” Journal of Economic Perspectives, 1999 (13): 145-166.
Liu, G. G., W. Dow, A. Z. Fu., J. Akin, and P. Lance, “Income Productivity in China: On the Role of Health,” Journal of Health Economics, 2008 (22): 22-44.
Bloom, D., and D. Canning, “The Health and Wealth of Nations,” Science, 2000 (287): 1207-1209.
Weil, D., “Accounting for the Effect of Health on Economic Growth,” Quarterly Journal of Economics, 2007 (122): 1265-1306.
Deaton, A., The Great Escape: Health, Wealth, and the Origins of Inequality, 2013, New Jersey: Princeton Press.
刘国恩、William H.Dow、傅正泓、John Akin，“中国的健康人力资本与收入增长”，《经济学（季刊）》，2004年第4期，第101-118页。
Thomas G. Rawski，“人力资源与中国长期经济增长”，《经济学（季刊）》，2011年第4期，第1153-1186页。
姚先国、张海峰，“教育、人力资本与地区经济差异”，《经济研究》，2008年第5期，第47-57页。
薛进军、高晓淳，“再论教育对收入增长与分配的影响”，《中国人口科学》，2011年第2期，第2-13页。
Topic 5 Growth Models and the Roles of Productivity
Why cannot the different aspects of factors of production fully explain all of the income variation among countries? How to measure productivity in growth models, and how much of the unexplained income variation can be attributed to productivity? How and why productivity differs among countries? How to assess China’s growth potential from productivity perspective?
References
Hall, R., and J. Charles, “Why do Some Countries Produce So Much More Output per Worker than Others?” Quarterly Journal of Economics, 1999 (114): 83-116.
Young, A., “The Tyranny of Numbers: Confronting the Statistical Realities of the East Asian Growth Experience,” Quarterly Journal of Economics, 1995 (110): 641-680.
Hsieh, C.-T., “What Explains the Industrial Revolution in East Asia? Evidence from the Factor Markets,” American Economic Review, 2002 (92): 502-526.
德怀特·波金斯、斯蒂芬·拉德勒、戴维·林道尔，“增长源泉分析”，《发展经济学》，中国人民大学出版社，2013年第6版，第57-62页。
代谦、李唐，“技术传承方式与长期增长：对传统中国增长停滞的一个解释”，《经济研究》，2010年第6期，第143-158页。
严成樑，“社会资本、创新与长期经济增长”，《经济研究》，2012年第11期，第48-60页。
王小鲁、樊纲、刘鹏，“中国经济增长方式转换和增长可持续性”，《经济研究》，2009年第1期，第4-16页。
蔡昉，“中国经济增长如何转向全要素生产率驱动型”，《中国社会科学》，2013年第1期，第56-71页。
Topic 6 Productivity and Determination: Technology
For a given quantity of physical and human capitals, improved productivity must mean a greater technology or better efficiency. What determines technology and how it is created and applied to economic production process? How technologies differ among countries, and how
to model technology improvement in growth production?
References
Krugman P., “The Myth of Asia’s Miracle,” Foreign Affairs, 1994 (73): 62-78.
Gordon, R. J., “Does the ‘New Economy’ Measure up to the Great Invention of the Past?” Journal of Economic Perspectives, 2000 (14): 49-74.
Acemoglu, D., “Directed Technical Change,” Review of Economic Studies, 2002 (69): 781-810.
Mokyr, J., “Chapter 17 Long-Term Economic Growth and the History of Technology,” in A. Philippe and N. D. Steven (eds.), Handbook of Economic Growth, 2005 (1B), Amsterdam: Elsevier.
宋冬林、王林辉、董直庆，“资本体现式技术进步及其对经济增长的贡献率（1981—2007）”，《中国社会科学》，2011年第2期，第91-106页。
吴延瑞，“生产率对中国经济增长的贡献：新的估计”，《经济学（季刊）》，2008年第3期，第827-842页。
赵彦云、刘思明，“中国专利对经济增长方式影响的实证研究：1988～2008年”，《数量经济技术经济研究》，2011年第4期，第34-48页。
黄新飞、关楠、翟爱梅，“遗传距离对跨国收入差距的影响研究：理论和中国的实证分析”，《经济学（季刊）》，2014年第13卷第3期，第1127-1146页。
Topic 7 Productivity and Determination: Efficiency
In addition to technology, how much of the productivity variation can be explained by efficiency levels associated with the users? How efficiency differs among countries? What are the different types of inefficiencies? How efficiency is determined by state institutional arrangement and openness/globalization?
References
Clark, G., “Why Isn’t the Whole World Developed? Lessons from the Cotton Mills,” Journal of Economic History, 1978 (47): 141-173.
Baily, M. N., and S. Robert, “International Productivity Comparisons Built from the Firm Level,” Journal of Economic Perspectives, 2001 (15): 151-172.
Hseih, C.-T., and P. Klenow, “Misallocation and Manufacturing TFP in China and India,” Quarterly Journal of Economics, 2007 (124): 1403-1448.
Zhu, X., “Understanding China's Growth: Past, Present, and Future,” Journal of Economic Perspectives, 2012 (26): 103-124.
Sachs, JD and A Warner, “Economic Reform and the Process of Globalization,” Brookings Papers on Economic Activities, 1995 (195): 1-118.
Wacziarg, R. and Welch, KH., “Trade Liberalization and Growth: New Evidence,” The World Bank Economic Review, 2008 (22):187-231.
刘瑞明、石磊，“国有企业的双重效率损失与经济增长”，《经济研究》，2010年第1期，第127-137页。
李勇、王满仓、高煜，“适度补贴、次优产权安排与长期经济增长”，《管理世界》，2012年第7期，第10-19页。
刘瑞明，“所有制结构、增长差异与地区差距：历史因素影响了增长轨迹吗?”，《经济研究》，2011年第S2期，第16-27页。
樊纲、王小鲁、马光荣，“中国市场化进程对经济增长的贡献”，《经济研究》，2011年第9期，第4-16页。
方颖、赵扬，“寻找制度的工具变量：估计产权保护对中国经济增长的贡献”，《经济研究》，2011年第5期，第138-148页。
林毅夫、孙希芳，“银行业结构与经济增长”，《经济研究》，2008年第9期，第31-45页。
Topic 8 Fundamental Conditions for Growth: Government
Why does a society need government and what should be its proper roles in the economy? How government would affect growth? Why did government intended goals often end up with different or sometimes opposite outcomes in economy? Why poor countries tend to have poor government?
References
Krueger, A. O., “Government Failures in Development,” Journal of Economic Perspectives, 1990 (4): 9-23.
Kaufmann, D., A. Kraay, and M. Mastruzzi, “Governance Matters IV: Governance Indicators for 1996-2009,” World Bank Policy Research Paper 5430, 2000.
Feldstein, M., “How Big Should Government Be?” National Tax Journal, 1997 (2): 197-213.
Meng, X., N. Qian, and P. Yared, “The Institutional Causes of China’s Great Famine, 1959-1961”, NBER Working Paper W16361, 2014.
Cai, H., J. V. Henderson, and Q. Zhang, “China's Land Market Auctions: Evidence of Corruption?”, RAND Journal of Economics, 2013 (44): 488-521.
Xu, C., “The Fundamental Institutions of China's Reforms and Development,” Journal of Economic Literature, 2011 (49): 1076-1151.
Wang, Y., and J. You, “Corruption and Firm Growth: Evidence from China,” China Economic Review, 2012 (23): 415-433.
Ramirez, C. D., “Is Corruption in China ‘Out of Control’? A Comparison with the US in Historical Perspective,” Journal of Comparative Economics, 2014 (42): 76-91.
杨海生、罗党论、陈少凌，“资源禀赋、官员交流与经济增长”，《管理世界》，2010年第5期，第17-26页。
张军、高远，“官员任期、异地交流与经济增长——来自省级经验的证据”，《经济研究》，2011年第11期，第91-103页。
周黎安，“中国地方官员的晋升锦标赛模式研究”，《经济研究》，2007年第7期，第36-50页。
刘勇政、冯海波，“腐败、公共支出效率与长期经济增长”，《经济研究》，2011年第9期，第17-28页。
吴一平、芮萌，“地区腐败、市场化与中国经济增长”，《管理世界》，2010年第11期，第10-17页。
Topic 9 Fundamental Conditions for Growth: Income Distribution
Why do income distribution and inequality matter to growth? How to measure income inequality and how did it change along with economic growth in human history? What is the effect of income inequality on accumulation of physical capital? How does it matter to human capital? How does it affect economic efficiency, political economy, and social sustainability?
References
Kuznets, S., “Economic Growth and Income Distribution,” American Economic Review, 1955 (45): 1-28.
Jones, C. I., “On the Evolution of the World Income Distribution,” Journal of Economic Perspectives, 1997 (11): 19-36.
Galor, O., and O. Moav, “From Physical Capital to Human Capital: Inequality and the Process of Development,” Review of Economic Studies, 2004 (71): 1001-1026.
Fernandez, R., N. Guner, and J. Knowles, “Love and Money: A Theoretical and Empirical Analysis of Household Sorting and Inequality,” Quarterly Journal of Economics, 2005 (120): 273-344.
林毅夫、陈斌开，“发展战略、产业结构与收入分配”，《经济学（季刊）》，2013年第12卷第4期，第1109-1140页。
张克中、冯俊诚，“通货膨胀、不平等与亲贫式增长——来自中国的实证研究”，《管理世界》，2010年第5期，第27-33页。
何其春，“税收、收入不平等和内生经济增长”，《经济研究》，2012年第2期，第4-14页。
罗楚亮，“经济增长、收入差距与农村贫困”，《经济研究》，2012年第2期，第15-27页。
Topic 10 Fundamental Conditions for Growth: Culture and Value Ideas
To what extent do culture and value ideas affect economic growth? Through what mechanisms do culture and value ideas may play a significant role in economic productivity? How to measure culture and value effect on growth? What determines culture and value ideas? Can culture and value ideas be changed through government or public interventions such as freedom of speech and “market” for ideas? What are the implications of culture effect on economic activities for Chinese?
References
Carroll, C. D., B.-K., Rhee, and C. Rhee, “Does Cultural Origin Affect Saving Behavior? Evidence from Immigrants,” Economic Development and Cultural Change,” 1999 (48): 33-50.
Henrich, J., R. Boyd, S. Bowles, C. Camerer, E. Fehc, H. Gintis, and R. McEreath, “In Search of Homo Economicus: Behavioral Experiments in 15 Small-Scale Societies,” American Economic Review, 2001 (91): 73-78.
Knack, S., and P. Keefer, “Does Social Capital Have an Economic Payoff? A Cross-Country Investigation,”
Quarterly Journal of Economics, 1997 (112): 1251-1288.
Chen, M. K., “The Effect of Language on Economic Behavior: Evidence from Savings Rates, Health Behaviors, and Retirement Assets,” American Economic Review, 2013, 103 (2): 690-731.
叶德珠、连玉君、黄有东、李东辉，“消费文化、认知偏差与消费行为偏差”，《经济研究》，2012年第2期，第80-92页。
贾俊雪、郭庆旺、宁静，“传统文化信念、社会保障与经济增长”，《世界经济》，2011年第8期，第3-18页。
李培功、郑艺峰，“媒体的公司治理作用：中国的经验证据”，《经济研究》，2010年第4期，第4-17页。
李金波、聂辉华，“儒家孝道、经济增长与文明分岔”，《中国社会科学》，2011年第6期，第41-55页。
Topic 11 Fundamental Conditions for Growth: Geography, Climate, and Natural Resources
To what extent can geographic locations explain income difference across countries? How does climate matter to growth and why? From a country perspective, whether and how the endowment of natural resources may matter to its growth? How would the relationship between the natural resources and growth change from the global perspective?
References
Gallup, J. L., J. D. Sachs, and A. D. Mellinger, “Geography and Economic Development,” International Regional Science Review, 1999 (22): 179-232.
Bloom, D. E., and J. D. Sachs, “Geography, Demography, and Economic Growth in Africa,” Brookings Papers on Economic Activities, 1998 (12): 419-455.
Frankel, J. A., and D. Romer, “Does Trade Cause Growth,” American Economic Review, 1999 (89): 379-399.
Rodriguez, F., and J. D. Sachs, “Why Do Resource-Abundant Economies Grow More Slowly?” Journal of Economic Growth, 1999 (4): 277-303.
邵帅、齐中英，“西部地区的能源开发与经济增长——基于‘资源诅咒’假说的实证分析”，《经济研究》，2008年第4期，第147-160页。
Sylvie Demurge、杰夫·萨克斯、胡永泰、鲍曙明、张欣，“地理位置与优惠政策对中国地区经济发展的相关贡献”，《经济研究》，2002年第9期，第14-23页。
徐康宁、王剑，“自然资源丰裕程度与经济发展水平关系的研究”，《经济研究》，2006年第1期，第78-89页。
赵红军，“气候变化是否影响了我国过去两千年间的农业社会稳定?——一个基于气候变化重建数据及经济发展历史数据的实证研究”，《经济学（季刊）》，2012年第12卷第2期，第691-722页。
Topic 12 Growth from the Global Perspective: Natural Resources and Environment
Taking the global perspective, whether and how will economic growth sustain associated with the use of nonrenewable resources and the environmental degradation? How should one
reconcile the economic profit maximization and sustainability, particularly with environment challenges to our future generations on this planet? From economics literature, what conceptual solutions and empirical understanding of the issues have been offered, and what are the major disputes still remained? Can market mechanisms such as technological substitution, pricing, and property right solve the problems?
References
Sachs, J. D., and A. M. Warner, “The Curse of Natural Resources,” European Economic Review, 2001 (45): 827-838.
Coase, Ronald H., “The Problem of Social Cost,” Journal of Law and Economics, 1960 (3): 1–44.
Cheung, Steven, “Transaction Costs, Risk Aversion, and the Choice of Contractual Arrangements,” Journal of Law & Economics, 1969 (12):23–42.
Sokoloff, K. L., and S. L. Engerman, “Institutions, Factors Endowments, and Paths of Development in the New World,” Journal of Economic Perspectives, 2000 (14): 217-232.
Davis, D. R., and D. E. Weinstein, “Bones, Bombs, and Break Points: The Geography of Economic Activity,” American Economic Review, 2002 (92): 1269-1289.
Acemoglu, D., S. Johnson, and J. A. Robinson, “Reversal of Fortune: Geography and Institutions in the Making of the Modern World Income Distribution,” Quarterly Journal of Economics, 2002 (117): 1231-1294.
Shafik, Nemat, “Economic Development and Environmental Quality: An Econometric Analysis,” Oxford Economic Papers, 1994 (46): 757-773.
Textbook ReferenceDavid N Weil, Economic Growth, third edition, Pearson, 2013
V. Grading Policy
Quizzes: 60 points (12 times)
One Final Test: 40 points (scheduled at the class time on June 14, 2015)
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Growth Economics——2015年春季学期双学位课程介绍
发布日期：2015-03-02 09:49 来源：北京大学国家发展研究院
Instructor：Prof. Gordon Liu
Students：Undergraduate Students
Course Title：Growth Economics (in English)
Term: Spring 2015
Time：3-6pm on Sundays, March 8-June 7, 2015
Weekly hours: 3
Credits：3
Prerequisite：English
Classroom: 北大二教405
TAs：
崔含笑
cuihanxiao@pku.edu.cn
188-1032-3551
何奇峰
hemiao_pku@126.com
137-1633-2329
孙烁琪
primenocrime@gmail.com
188-1051-9189
Instructor: Prof. Gordon Liu is a Yangtze River Scholar Professor of Economics at Peking University National School of Development (NSD), and Director of PKU China Center for Health Economic Research. His research interests include health and development economics, health reform, and pharmaceutical economics. Prior to PKU NSD, he once served as full-time faculty at USC, UNC Chapel Hill, and PKU Guanghua School of Management. He has taught courses as China in Transition, Managerial Economics, Macroeconomy and Health, and Health Economics.
教师简介： 刘国恩老师， 北京大学国家发展研究院经济学长江特聘教授、博士生导师，北大中国卫生经济研究中心主任，国务院国家医改专家咨询委委员。刘国恩教授曾执教于美国南加州大学，北卡大学，北大光华管理学院。曾讲授《China in Transition》，《Managerial Economics》，《宏观经济与健康投资》，《健康经济学》和《中国医疗体制改革》。
Email: gordonliu@nsd.pku.edu.cn；Tel: 6275-6963。
Course OverviewThe world economies have experienced the greatest divergence in economic growth in history since the Industrial Revolution. China, in particular, went through perhaps the most dramatic transitions, from leading the world economy for most of the agricultural era, to falling among the poorest economies in the late 70s, and then to upturning again with an
unprecedentedly high growth for the recent decades. While the world great divergence is well observed, large disputes remain on the key economic drivers and mechanisms for growth.
This course will provide undergraduate students with a systematic view of economic concepts, basic theories, analytic frameworks, and primary literature with empirical evidence that are essential to a full understanding of the most fundamental part for economic growth. Drawing upon the materials from the leading textbooks and literature, this course will have 12 central topics on growth for lectures, presentations, and discussions throughout a semester. For outcomes, this course expects students to gain a basic understanding of why and how growth matters, and what is known and what is not known from the literature on the driving forces of growth.
Course ObjectivesThis is a semester-long course, aiming at providing undergraduate students with a systematic view of economic concepts, basic theories, analytic frameworks, and empirical data and evidence from literature that are essential to a full understanding of the most fundamental part for economic growth.
Course TopicsTopic 1 The World Economic Growth and Great Divergence – from the Agricultural Era to Industrial Revolution
Today’s world as a whole is surely much more prosperous than ever before. In the meantime, it also has been accompanied with growing disparities in income and living conditions across the planet, leading to the largest income divergence ever in human history. How has the human income gap changed over time? What are the major drivers for income growth and distribution gaps? How to determine economic growth in an analytic framework from the conventional theory? What happened to the dynamics of China’s economy in history?
References
Henderson, J. V., A. Storeygard, and D. Weil, “Measuring Economic Growth from Outer Space,” American Economic Review, 2012 (2): 994-1028.
Lin, J. Y., “The Needham Puzzle: Why the Industrial Revolution Did Not Originate in China?” Economic Development and Cultural Change, 1995 (43): 269-292.
Huang, Y., “How Did China Take Off?”, Journal of Economic Perspectives, 2012 (26): 147-170.
Brandt, L., D. Ma, and T. G. Rawski, “From Divergence to Convergence: Reevaluating the History behind China's Economic Boom,” Journal of Economic Literature, 2014 (52): 45-123.
Pritchett, L., “Divergence, Big Time,” Journal of Economic Perspectives, 1997 (11): 3-17.
彭慕兰，《大分流：欧洲、中国及现代世界经济的发展》，史建云译，江苏人民出版社，2003年第1版。
罗伯特·巴罗，《经济增长的决定因素：跨国经验研究》，李剑译，中国人民大学出版社，2004年第1版。
蔡昉，“理解中国经济发展的过去、现在和将来——基于一个贯通的增长理论框架”，《经济研究》，2013年11期，第4-16页。
林毅夫，“李约瑟之谜、韦伯疑问和中国的奇迹——自宋以来的长期经济发展”，《北京大学学报（哲学社会科学版）》，2007年第44卷第4号，第5-22页。
德怀特·帕金斯，“从历史和国际的视角看中国的经济增长”，《经济学（季刊）》，2005年第4卷第4期，第981-912页。
Topic 2 Growth Model and Factors of Production: Physical Capital
How economists model economic growth in the context of conventional framework? What are the most fundamental factors of production in growth models? How is capital determined and how its nature and roles have been evolved over time in human history of economic growth? Are there some major problems with the conventional growth model settings?
References
Solow, R., “Technical Change and the Aggregate Production Function,” Review of Economics and Statistics, 1957 (39): 312-320.
Easterlin, R., “The World Standard of Living since 1800,” Journal of Economic Perspectives, 2000 (14): 7-26.
Acemoglu, D., “Theory, General Equilibrium, and Political Economy in Development Economics,” Journal of Economic Perspectives, 2010 (24): 17-32.
德怀特·波金斯、斯蒂芬·拉德勒、戴维·林道尔，“储蓄、投资和资本流动”，《发展经济学》，中国人民大学出版社，2013年第6版，第309-337页。
王志浩，“中国的储蓄过剩问题”，《大国经济之路》，中信出版社，2010年第1版，第123-136页。
臧文斌、刘国恩、徐菲、熊先军，“中国城镇居民基本医疗保险对家庭消费的影响”，《经济研究》，2012年第7期，第75-85页。
经济增长前沿课题组，“高投资、宏观成本与经济增长的持续性”，《经济研究》，2005年第10期，第12-23页。
吴忠群，“中国经济增长中消费和投资的确定”，《中国社会科学》，2002年第3期，第49-62页。
Topic 3 Growth Model and Factors of Production: Labor Supply and Population
What is the relationship between population, labor supply, and economic growth? What is the well-known Malthusian trap and why it was once popular and then collapsed later during the Industrial Revolution? How to model the roles of population and labor supply in income growth model? How did Malthusian theory influence the population control policies in China? What are the central driving forces for fertility transition and population growth in the long
run?
References
Bernard, A., and B. Meghan, “Who Wins the Olympic Games: Economic Resources and Medal Totals,” Review of Economics and Statistics, 2004 (86): 413-417.
Galor, O., and D. Weil, “Population, Technology, and Growth: from Malthusian Stagnation to the Development of Transition and Beyond,” American Economic Review, 2000 (90): 806-828.
Kremer, M., “Population Growth and Technological Change: One Million B.C. to 1990,” Quarterly Journal of Economics, 1993 (108): 681-716.
Soares, R. R., “Mortality Reductions, Educational Attainment, and Fertility Choice,” American Economic Review, 1989 (79): 177-183.
阿马蒂亚·森，“强制计划生育的有效程度有多大？”，《以自由看待发展》，任赜、于真译，中国人民大学出版社，2012年第1版，第219-223页。
陈鸣，“翼城人口特区，一个县封存25年的二胎试验”，《南方周末》，2010年10月15日。
刘国恩，“转变经济发展方式靠什么？”，《比较》，2013年第3期，第130-144页。
汪伟，“经济增长、人口结构变化与中国高储蓄”，《经济学（季刊）》，2010年第1期，第29-52页。
保罗·舒尔茨，“人口结构和储蓄：亚洲的经验证据及其对中国的意义”，《经济学（季刊）》，2005年第3期，第991-1018页。
蔡昉，“人口转变、人口红利与刘易斯转折点”，《经济研究》，2010年第4期，第4-13页。
Topic 4 Growth Models and Factors of Production: Human Capital
How does the quality of labor matter to production? How to measure labor quality from the perspective of education and health as two most critical human capitals in growth models? What are the similarities and differences between human capital and physical capital, and the relationship between health and education human capitals? How to predict the future potentials of human capitals in China’s economic growth?
References
Becker, G. S., Human Capital: A Theoretical and Empirical Analysis, with Special Reference to Education, 1994, Chicago: University of Chicago Press.
Acemoglu, D., and S. Johnson, “Disease and Development: the Effects of Life Expectancy on Economic Growth,” Journal of Political Economy, 2007 (115): 925-985.
Smith, J. P., “Healthy Bodies and Thick Wallets: The Dual Relation between Health and Economic Status,” Journal of Economic Perspectives, 1999 (13): 145-166.
Liu, G. G., W. Dow, A. Z. Fu., J. Akin, and P. Lance, “Income Productivity in China: On the Role of Health,” Journal of Health Economics, 2008 (22): 22-44.
Bloom, D., and D. Canning, “The Health and Wealth of Nations,” Science, 2000 (287): 1207-1209.
Weil, D., “Accounting for the Effect of Health on Economic Growth,” Quarterly Journal of Economics, 2007 (122): 1265-1306.
Deaton, A., The Great Escape: Health, Wealth, and the Origins of Inequality, 2013, New Jersey: Princeton Press.
刘国恩、William H.Dow、傅正泓、John Akin，“中国的健康人力资本与收入增长”，《经济学（季刊）》，2004年第4期，第101-118页。
Thomas G. Rawski，“人力资源与中国长期经济增长”，《经济学（季刊）》，2011年第4期，第1153-1186页。
姚先国、张海峰，“教育、人力资本与地区经济差异”，《经济研究》，2008年第5期，第47-57页。
薛进军、高晓淳，“再论教育对收入增长与分配的影响”，《中国人口科学》，2011年第2期，第2-13页。
Topic 5 Growth Models and the Roles of Productivity
Why cannot the different aspects of factors of production fully explain all of the income variation among countries? How to measure productivity in growth models, and how much of the unexplained income variation can be attributed to productivity? How and why productivity differs among countries? How to assess China’s growth potential from productivity perspective?
References
Hall, R., and J. Charles, “Why do Some Countries Produce So Much More Output per Worker than Others?” Quarterly Journal of Economics, 1999 (114): 83-116.
Young, A., “The Tyranny of Numbers: Confronting the Statistical Realities of the East Asian Growth Experience,” Quarterly Journal of Economics, 1995 (110): 641-680.
Hsieh, C.-T., “What Explains the Industrial Revolution in East Asia? Evidence from the Factor Markets,” American Economic Review, 2002 (92): 502-526.
德怀特·波金斯、斯蒂芬·拉德勒、戴维·林道尔，“增长源泉分析”，《发展经济学》，中国人民大学出版社，2013年第6版，第57-62页。
代谦、李唐，“技术传承方式与长期增长：对传统中国增长停滞的一个解释”，《经济研究》，2010年第6期，第143-158页。
严成樑，“社会资本、创新与长期经济增长”，《经济研究》，2012年第11期，第48-60页。
王小鲁、樊纲、刘鹏，“中国经济增长方式转换和增长可持续性”，《经济研究》，2009年第1期，第4-16页。
蔡昉，“中国经济增长如何转向全要素生产率驱动型”，《中国社会科学》，2013年第1期，第56-71页。
Topic 6 Productivity and Determination: Technology
For a given quantity of physical and human capitals, improved productivity must mean a greater technology or better efficiency. What determines technology and how it is created and applied to economic production process? How technologies differ among countries, and how
to model technology improvement in growth production?
References
Krugman P., “The Myth of Asia’s Miracle,” Foreign Affairs, 1994 (73): 62-78.
Gordon, R. J., “Does the ‘New Economy’ Measure up to the Great Invention of the Past?” Journal of Economic Perspectives, 2000 (14): 49-74.
Acemoglu, D., “Directed Technical Change,” Review of Economic Studies, 2002 (69): 781-810.
Mokyr, J., “Chapter 17 Long-Term Economic Growth and the History of Technology,” in A. Philippe and N. D. Steven (eds.), Handbook of Economic Growth, 2005 (1B), Amsterdam: Elsevier.
宋冬林、王林辉、董直庆，“资本体现式技术进步及其对经济增长的贡献率（1981—2007）”，《中国社会科学》，2011年第2期，第91-106页。
吴延瑞，“生产率对中国经济增长的贡献：新的估计”，《经济学（季刊）》，2008年第3期，第827-842页。
赵彦云、刘思明，“中国专利对经济增长方式影响的实证研究：1988～2008年”，《数量经济技术经济研究》，2011年第4期，第34-48页。
黄新飞、关楠、翟爱梅，“遗传距离对跨国收入差距的影响研究：理论和中国的实证分析”，《经济学（季刊）》，2014年第13卷第3期，第1127-1146页。
Topic 7 Productivity and Determination: Efficiency
In addition to technology, how much of the productivity variation can be explained by efficiency levels associated with the users? How efficiency differs among countries? What are the different types of inefficiencies? How efficiency is determined by state institutional arrangement and openness/globalization?
References
Clark, G., “Why Isn’t the Whole World Developed? Lessons from the Cotton Mills,” Journal of Economic History, 1978 (47): 141-173.
Baily, M. N., and S. Robert, “International Productivity Comparisons Built from the Firm Level,” Journal of Economic Perspectives, 2001 (15): 151-172.
Hseih, C.-T., and P. Klenow, “Misallocation and Manufacturing TFP in China and India,” Quarterly Journal of Economics, 2007 (124): 1403-1448.
Zhu, X., “Understanding China's Growth: Past, Present, and Future,” Journal of Economic Perspectives, 2012 (26): 103-124.
Sachs, JD and A Warner, “Economic Reform and the Process of Globalization,” Brookings Papers on Economic Activities, 1995 (195): 1-118.
Wacziarg, R. and Welch, KH., “Trade Liberalization and Growth: New Evidence,” The World Bank Economic Review, 2008 (22):187-231.
刘瑞明、石磊，“国有企业的双重效率损失与经济增长”，《经济研究》，2010年第1期，第127-137页。
李勇、王满仓、高煜，“适度补贴、次优产权安排与长期经济增长”，《管理世界》，2012年第7期，第10-19页。
刘瑞明，“所有制结构、增长差异与地区差距：历史因素影响了增长轨迹吗?”，《经济研究》，2011年第S2期，第16-27页。
樊纲、王小鲁、马光荣，“中国市场化进程对经济增长的贡献”，《经济研究》，2011年第9期，第4-16页。
方颖、赵扬，“寻找制度的工具变量：估计产权保护对中国经济增长的贡献”，《经济研究》，2011年第5期，第138-148页。
林毅夫、孙希芳，“银行业结构与经济增长”，《经济研究》，2008年第9期，第31-45页。
Topic 8 Fundamental Conditions for Growth: Government
Why does a society need government and what should be its proper roles in the economy? How government would affect growth? Why did government intended goals often end up with different or sometimes opposite outcomes in economy? Why poor countries tend to have poor government?
References
Krueger, A. O., “Government Failures in Development,” Journal of Economic Perspectives, 1990 (4): 9-23.
Kaufmann, D., A. Kraay, and M. Mastruzzi, “Governance Matters IV: Governance Indicators for 1996-2009,” World Bank Policy Research Paper 5430, 2000.
Feldstein, M., “How Big Should Government Be?” National Tax Journal, 1997 (2): 197-213.
Meng, X., N. Qian, and P. Yared, “The Institutional Causes of China’s Great Famine, 1959-1961”, NBER Working Paper W16361, 2014.
Cai, H., J. V. Henderson, and Q. Zhang, “China's Land Market Auctions: Evidence of Corruption?”, RAND Journal of Economics, 2013 (44): 488-521.
Xu, C., “The Fundamental Institutions of China's Reforms and Development,” Journal of Economic Literature, 2011 (49): 1076-1151.
Wang, Y., and J. You, “Corruption and Firm Growth: Evidence from China,” China Economic Review, 2012 (23): 415-433.
Ramirez, C. D., “Is Corruption in China ‘Out of Control’? A Comparison with the US in Historical Perspective,” Journal of Comparative Economics, 2014 (42): 76-91.
杨海生、罗党论、陈少凌，“资源禀赋、官员交流与经济增长”，《管理世界》，2010年第5期，第17-26页。
张军、高远，“官员任期、异地交流与经济增长——来自省级经验的证据”，《经济研究》，2011年第11期，第91-103页。
周黎安，“中国地方官员的晋升锦标赛模式研究”，《经济研究》，2007年第7期，第36-50页。
刘勇政、冯海波，“腐败、公共支出效率与长期经济增长”，《经济研究》，2011年第9期，第17-28页。
吴一平、芮萌，“地区腐败、市场化与中国经济增长”，《管理世界》，2010年第11期，第10-17页。
Topic 9 Fundamental Conditions for Growth: Income Distribution
Why do income distribution and inequality matter to growth? How to measure income inequality and how did it change along with economic growth in human history? What is the effect of income inequality on accumulation of physical capital? How does it matter to human capital? How does it affect economic efficiency, political economy, and social sustainability?
References
Kuznets, S., “Economic Growth and Income Distribution,” American Economic Review, 1955 (45): 1-28.
Jones, C. I., “On the Evolution of the World Income Distribution,” Journal of Economic Perspectives, 1997 (11): 19-36.
Galor, O., and O. Moav, “From Physical Capital to Human Capital: Inequality and the Process of Development,” Review of Economic Studies, 2004 (71): 1001-1026.
Fernandez, R., N. Guner, and J. Knowles, “Love and Money: A Theoretical and Empirical Analysis of Household Sorting and Inequality,” Quarterly Journal of Economics, 2005 (120): 273-344.
林毅夫、陈斌开，“发展战略、产业结构与收入分配”，《经济学（季刊）》，2013年第12卷第4期，第1109-1140页。
张克中、冯俊诚，“通货膨胀、不平等与亲贫式增长——来自中国的实证研究”，《管理世界》，2010年第5期，第27-33页。
何其春，“税收、收入不平等和内生经济增长”，《经济研究》，2012年第2期，第4-14页。
罗楚亮，“经济增长、收入差距与农村贫困”，《经济研究》，2012年第2期，第15-27页。
Topic 10 Fundamental Conditions for Growth: Culture and Value Ideas
To what extent do culture and value ideas affect economic growth? Through what mechanisms do culture and value ideas may play a significant role in economic productivity? How to measure culture and value effect on growth? What determines culture and value ideas? Can culture and value ideas be changed through government or public interventions such as freedom of speech and “market” for ideas? What are the implications of culture effect on economic activities for Chinese?
References
Carroll, C. D., B.-K., Rhee, and C. Rhee, “Does Cultural Origin Affect Saving Behavior? Evidence from Immigrants,” Economic Development and Cultural Change,” 1999 (48): 33-50.
Henrich, J., R. Boyd, S. Bowles, C. Camerer, E. Fehc, H. Gintis, and R. McEreath, “In Search of Homo Economicus: Behavioral Experiments in 15 Small-Scale Societies,” American Economic Review, 2001 (91): 73-78.
Knack, S., and P. Keefer, “Does Social Capital Have an Economic Payoff? A Cross-Country Investigation,”
Quarterly Journal of Economics, 1997 (112): 1251-1288.
Chen, M. K., “The Effect of Language on Economic Behavior: Evidence from Savings Rates, Health Behaviors, and Retirement Assets,” American Economic Review, 2013, 103 (2): 690-731.
叶德珠、连玉君、黄有东、李东辉，“消费文化、认知偏差与消费行为偏差”，《经济研究》，2012年第2期，第80-92页。
贾俊雪、郭庆旺、宁静，“传统文化信念、社会保障与经济增长”，《世界经济》，2011年第8期，第3-18页。
李培功、郑艺峰，“媒体的公司治理作用：中国的经验证据”，《经济研究》，2010年第4期，第4-17页。
李金波、聂辉华，“儒家孝道、经济增长与文明分岔”，《中国社会科学》，2011年第6期，第41-55页。
Topic 11 Fundamental Conditions for Growth: Geography, Climate, and Natural Resources
To what extent can geographic locations explain income difference across countries? How does climate matter to growth and why? From a country perspective, whether and how the endowment of natural resources may matter to its growth? How would the relationship between the natural resources and growth change from the global perspective?
References
Gallup, J. L., J. D. Sachs, and A. D. Mellinger, “Geography and Economic Development,” International Regional Science Review, 1999 (22): 179-232.
Bloom, D. E., and J. D. Sachs, “Geography, Demography, and Economic Growth in Africa,” Brookings Papers on Economic Activities, 1998 (12): 419-455.
Frankel, J. A., and D. Romer, “Does Trade Cause Growth,” American Economic Review, 1999 (89): 379-399.
Rodriguez, F., and J. D. Sachs, “Why Do Resource-Abundant Economies Grow More Slowly?” Journal of Economic Growth, 1999 (4): 277-303.
邵帅、齐中英，“西部地区的能源开发与经济增长——基于‘资源诅咒’假说的实证分析”，《经济研究》，2008年第4期，第147-160页。
Sylvie Demurge、杰夫·萨克斯、胡永泰、鲍曙明、张欣，“地理位置与优惠政策对中国地区经济发展的相关贡献”，《经济研究》，2002年第9期，第14-23页。
徐康宁、王剑，“自然资源丰裕程度与经济发展水平关系的研究”，《经济研究》，2006年第1期，第78-89页。
赵红军，“气候变化是否影响了我国过去两千年间的农业社会稳定?——一个基于气候变化重建数据及经济发展历史数据的实证研究”，《经济学（季刊）》，2012年第12卷第2期，第691-722页。
Topic 12 Growth from the Global Perspective: Natural Resources and Environment
Taking the global perspective, whether and how will economic growth sustain associated with the use of nonrenewable resources and the environmental degradation? How should one
reconcile the economic profit maximization and sustainability, particularly with environment challenges to our future generations on this planet? From economics literature, what conceptual solutions and empirical understanding of the issues have been offered, and what are the major disputes still remained? Can market mechanisms such as technological substitution, pricing, and property right solve the problems?
References
Sachs, J. D., and A. M. Warner, “The Curse of Natural Resources,” European Economic Review, 2001 (45): 827-838.
Coase, Ronald H., “The Problem of Social Cost,” Journal of Law and Economics, 1960 (3): 1–44.
Cheung, Steven, “Transaction Costs, Risk Aversion, and the Choice of Contractual Arrangements,” Journal of Law & Economics, 1969 (12):23–42.
Sokoloff, K. L., and S. L. Engerman, “Institutions, Factors Endowments, and Paths of Development in the New World,” Journal of Economic Perspectives, 2000 (14): 217-232.
Davis, D. R., and D. E. Weinstein, “Bones, Bombs, and Break Points: The Geography of Economic Activity,” American Economic Review, 2002 (92): 1269-1289.
Acemoglu, D., S. Johnson, and J. A. Robinson, “Reversal of Fortune: Geography and Institutions in the Making of the Modern World Income Distribution,” Quarterly Journal of Economics, 2002 (117): 1231-1294.
Shafik, Nemat, “Economic Development and Environmental Quality: An Econometric Analysis,” Oxford Economic Papers, 1994 (46): 757-773.
Textbook ReferenceDavid N Weil, Economic Growth, third edition, Pearson, 2013
V. Grading Policy
Quizzes: 60 points (12 times)
One Final Test: 40 points (scheduled at the class time on June 14, 2015)
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