主讲人：Andres Drenik，University of Texas at Austin and NBER

题目：A Theory of How Workers Keep Up With Inflation

主持人：余昌华、薛思帆（北京大学国家发展研究院）

时间：2025年5月20日（周二）上午09:00-10:30（北京时间）

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摘要：

We develop a model that integrates modern theories of labor market flows with nominal wage rigidities to study the consequences of unexpected inflation on the labor market. Nominal wage stickiness within a match incentivizes workers to engage in job-to-job transitions after an unexpected rise in the price level. Such dynamics lead to a rise in aggregate vacancies relative to unemployment during inflationary periods, associating a seemingly tight labor market with lower average real wages—two facts observed during the recent inflation period. Calibrated with pre-2020 data, the model can jointly match both aggregate and cross-sectional trends in worker flows and wages during the 2021-2024 period. Using historical data, we further show that prior periods of high inflation were also associated with an increase in vacancies and an upward shift in the Beveridge curve. Collectively, our calibrated model implies that the recent inflation in the United States reduced the welfare of workers through real wage declines and other costly actions, providing a model-driven reason for why workers report disliking inflation. Finally, our results suggest that policymakers and academics should be cautious about viewing the rise in the vacancy-to-unemployment rate as a sign of a tight labor market during inflationary periods without holistically looking at other labor market indicators.

主讲人介绍：

Prof. Andres Drenik is an assistant Professor at the Department of Economics, University of Texas at Austin and Faculty Research Fellow at NBER. Prof. Drenik studies how frictions in the price system shape economic dynamics and the allocation of resources, including (a) the impact of inflation, nominal rigidities, and exchange rates on labor market dynamics and inequality in emerging economies; (b) how frictions influence the price and wage-setting process itself and the choice of currencies as units of account; and (c) the misallocation of scarce resources across various markets and how this misallocation is reflected in, and perpetuated by, distortions in the price system. His work appears at top journals, including Review of Economic Studies, Journal of Monetary Economics, Review of Economics and Statistics, and American Economic Journal: Economic Policy. Prof Drenik currenty serves as an Associate Editor at Journal of International Economics.