主讲人：Michael Sposi （Southern Methodist University）

题目：Deindustrialization and Industry Polarization

主持人：余昌华（北京大学国家发展研究院）

时间：2024年11月19日（周二）上午10:30-12:00（北京时间）

会议形式：线上

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https://us06web.zoom.us/j/85789793454?pwd=ZuhOpu9hWtlbnYzksWwhkXO6t67H8D.1

Meeting ID: 857 8979 3454

Passcode: 305283

摘要：

We add to recent evidence on deindustrialization and document a new pattern: increasing industry polarization over time. We assess whether these new features of structural change can be explained by a dynamic open economy model with two primary driving forces, sector-biased productivity growth and sectoral trade integration. We calibrate the model to the same countries used to document our patterns. We find that sector-biased productivity growth is important for deindustrialization by reducing the relative price of manufacturing to services, and sectoral trade integration is important for industry polarization through increased specialization. The interaction of these two driving forces is also essential as increased trade openness transmits global technological change to each country’s relative prices, sectoral specialization, and sectoral trade imbalances.

主讲人介绍：

Michael Sposi is Associate Professor and Director of Doctoral Studies in the Department of Economics at Southern Methodist University. His research examines the determinants of global structural change patterns, the macroeconomic implications of demographic change, the regional and aggregate implications of U.S. tariff changes, global supply chains, and dynamic gains from trade. Prior to joining SMU, he worked as an economist at the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas where he produced research and policy analysis on international economic developments.