讲座题目：A Small Fish in a Big Pond? The Long-Term Consequences of Marginal Enrollment in Elite Universities
主讲人：陈祎（上海科技大学）
讲座时间：2024年11月1日 周三 10:30-12:00
讲座地点：北京大学国家发展研究院承泽园校区245教室
组织者：
(国家发展研究院) 李力行、席天扬、徐化愚、于航、王轩、易君健、黄清扬
(经济学院) 刘冲、吴群峰、曹光宇、年永威
(光华管理学院）张晓波、仇心诚
摘要：Enrolling in an elite university can have significant life consequences. However, the conventional wisdom that estimating the effect of elite school enrollment while holding everything else constant is of limited value from an individual perspective. Marginal enrollees often have to make trade-offs for the sake of attending a better university, including choosing weaker majors or smaller cities, which may offset the labor market benefits of attending of an elite university. By linking administrative records of college entrance exam takers in China with their bank card transaction data a decade later, we aim to understand the long-term consequences of elite university enrollment using a regression-discontinuity design. We find that individuals who barely pass the cutoff scores for elite universities are 42\% more likely to attend them. However, they spend significantly less on real estate purchases (arguably the most important indicator of lifetime wealth in China) and do not spend more in other categories, suggesting that marginal enrollees are financially worse off. We identify three potential explanations for this counterintuitive outcome: (1) marginal enrollees perform worse academically compared to their peers; (2) they tend to choose weaker majors within the universities; and (3) the universities are often located in less desirable areas with fewer job opportunities.
主讲人简介：
陈祎，现任上海科技大学创业与管理学院副教授。他2010年本科毕业于北京大学经济学院，随后赴美国加州大学洛杉矶分校深造，2015年获得经济学博士学位。其主要研究领域包括劳动经济学、人口经济学和发展经济学。他目前担任国际劳动组织(GLO)会士和人口经济学旗舰期刊Journal of Population Economic副主编。他的研究发表于American Economic Review、International Economic Review、Journal of Development Economic等国内外权威学术期刊。他主持国家自然科学基金青年项目和优秀青年项目，曾荣获教育部第九届高等学校科学研究优秀成果奖和上海市第十六届哲学社会科学优秀成果奖。