主讲人：Yiliang Li (University of International Business and Economics)
题目：The Causal Effects of Global Supply Chain Disruptions on Macroeconomic Outcomes: Evidence and Theory
主持人：余昌华（北京大学国家发展研究院）
时间：2024年10月8日（周二）上午10:30-12:00（北京时间）
地点：344教室

摘要：
We study the causal effects and policy implications of global supply chain disruptions. We construct a new index to measure the state of the global supply chain using the mandatory automatic identification system data from container ships and propose a novel spatial clustering algorithm to determine real-time congestion based on the positions, speeds, and headings of container ships in major ports around the globe. We develop a model with search frictions between producers and retailers, linking spare productive capacity with congestion in the goods market and the responses of output and prices to supply chain shocks. The co-movements of output, prices, and spare capacity yield unique identification restrictions that allow us to study the causal effects on macroeconomic outcomes. We document how supply chain shocks drove U.S. inflation during 2021 and highlight that from 2022 onward, traditional demand and supply shocks also played a significant role in explaining inflation. Lastly, we demonstrate that monetary policy is more effective in addressing inflation amid supply chain disruptions than under regular circumstances. 

主讲人介绍：
Yiliang Li is an assistant professor at the School of International Trade and Economics, University of International Business and Economics (UIBE). His research interests lie at the intersection of macroeconomics, international trade, and transportation economics. He graduated from the University of Oxford in 2022.