时间：9月13日（周五）10:30 a.m.-11:30

地点：北京大学经济学院107

主讲人：Jeffrey Ely（the Charles E. and Emma H. Morrison Professor of Economics at Northwestern University）

主持老师：吴泽南，石凡奇（经院）；胡岠（国发院）

参与老师：胡涛，吴泽南，石凡奇（经院）；汪浩，胡岠，邢亦青（国发院）；翁翕，刘烁（光华）

题目: Suspense and Surprise（悬疑与惊奇）

摘要：We model demand for noninstrumental information, drawing on the idea that people derive entertainment utility from suspense and surprise. A period has more suspense if the variance of the next period’s beliefs is greater. A period has more surprise if the current belief is further from the last period’s belief. Under these definitions, we analyze the optimal way to reveal information over time so as to maximize expected suspense or surprise experienced by a Bayesian audience. We apply our results to the design of mystery novels, political primaries, casinos, game shows, auctions, and sports.

主讲人介绍：Jeffrey Ely是美国西北大学Charles E. and Emma H. Morrison经济学讲席教授。他是一位微观经济理论家，研究领域包括纯博弈论、应用微观经济学、行为经济学和实验经济学。他的研究包括不完全信息下的博弈论基础、重复博弈、机制设计和偏好演变。Jeffrey Ely教授是计量经济学会会员。他曾在 2016-2023 年担任American Economic Review（AER）联合主编，也是Theoretical Economics（TE）的创刊联合主编。

Jeffrey Ely is the Charles E. and Emma H. Morrison Professor of Economics at Northwestern University. He is a microeconomic theorist with interests ranging from pure game theory to applied microeconomics to behavioral and experimental economics. His work includes contributions to the foundations of game theory under incomplete information, repeated games, mechanism design, and the evolution of preferences. Professor Ely is a Fellow of the Econometric Society. He was a coeditor of American Economic Review (AER) from 2016-2023 and a founding co-editor of Theoretical Economics (TE).