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发布日期:2019-06-03 04:22    来源:

  近日,北京大学国家发展研究院2014级博士生俞秀梅与雷晓燕、王敏两位老师合作撰写的论文“Temperature Effects on Mortality and Household Adaptation: Evidence from China”被环境与资源经济学领域顶级期刊Journal of Environmental Economics and Management(JEEM)接受。



  This paper examines the effects of extreme temperatures on mortality rates, using random year-to-year variation in temperature based on county-level panel data from China. The analysis finds a robust, U-shaped relationship between temperature and mortality rates, indicating that extremely cold or hot temperatures lead to excess deaths. The heat-related (cold-related) effect is 3.5 times (3.2 times) as large as previous findings that used U.S. data, and it is especially large for the elderly population, mainly due to excess deaths caused by cardiovascular diseases. Applying these results to Hadley Centre Global Environmental Model, version 2, Earth System climate change predictions shows that by 2061–2080 the annual mortality rate is likely to increase by 14.2% if greenhouse gas emissions continue to rise throughout the 21st century, the estimated health cost of which is around 0.98 trillion yuan per year. The paper also explores households’ adaptation behaviors to extreme temperatures. It finds that although urban households adaptively increase energy consumption when they are exposed to cold temperatures and purchase more air conditioners on hot and cold days, rural households are unresponsive to temperature fluctuations. This finding implies that rural people may be more resource constrained and suffer more when extreme temperatures occur.




  《Journal of Environmental Economics and Management》是由Elsevier出版社出版,致力于发表和环境与资源经济学相关的理论与实证文章,为SSCI来源期刊,是环境与资源经济学领域公认的顶级期刊。





   俞秀梅, 北京大学元培学院经济学学士(2014),北京大学国家发展研究院2019届经济学预毕业博士生,导师为王敏老师与雷晓燕老师,研究领域包括健康经济学与环境经济学。


  雷晓燕,北京大学国家发展研究院经济学教授;北京大学健康老龄与发展研究中心主任,教育部-北京大学人力资本与国家政策研究中心副主任;经济学(季刊)副主编。2007年获美国加利福尼亚大学洛杉矶校区经济学博士学位,主要研究兴趣包括劳动经济学,健康经济学,应用计量学等领域,数十篇学术研究成果已经在国际顶级期刊如Review of Economics and Statistics, American Economic Journal: Applied Economics, Journal of Human Resources和国内顶级期刊如《经济研究》、《经济学(季刊)》等发表。


  王敏,北京大学国家发展研究院长聘副教授,《经济学(季刊)》副主编,北京大学环境与能源经济学研究中心副主任,EfD中国项目主任。2011年获美国爱荷华州立大学经济学博士学位,主要研究领域包括环境与资源经济学、能源经济学、气候变化和宏观发展。在Economic Theory, Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, 《经济学(季刊)》,《经济研究》,《管理世界》,《世界经济》等中英文经济学权威学术刊物上发表论文近20篇。主持国家自然科学基金项目、世界银行资助项目和国家高端智库资助项目多项。