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sidenav header background[3月10日] 计量金融与大数据分析workshop
发布日期:2023-03-06 09:41 来源:
The Regime-Switching Policy for the RMB(人民币汇率政策的模式转换)
时间:2023年3月10日(周五)10:00-11:30
地点:北京大学经济学院107会议室
主讲人:邱实(复旦大学经济学院)
主持老师:(北大经院)王熙
参与老师:(北大经院)王一鸣、刘蕴霆、王法
(北大国发院)黄卓、张俊妮、孙振庭
(北大新结构)胡博
报告摘要:The RMB exchange rate policy follows a “two-pillar” rule, with the market pillar reflecting foreign exchange market conditions and the basket pillar stabilizing the RMB index. This documents a clear pattern of regime-switching in the policy coecients on the market pillar. We further find that macroeconomic variables, the intraday market condition as well as the news on trade conflict drive the regime-switching of policy coecients. In a Markov- switching rational expectations model, we demonstrate that regime-switching rules expand the set of policy combinations to guarantee the economy’s determinacy and to rule out self- fulfilling depreciation. A policy implication is that the regime change of the RMB policy rule, driven by di↵erent economic conditions, is a generalization of the counter-cyclical factor — a policy tool that the PBOC uses to stabilize the RMB exchange market.
主讲人简介:邱实,复旦大学经济学院讲师,印第安纳大学布鲁明顿分校经济学博士(2019)。研究方向包括计量经济学,宏观计量,数量宏观和计算。