主讲人：秦雨（新加坡国立大学）

题目：Building Climate Resilience in Public Transit: The Role of Rainstorm Warnings in the Beijing Subway

主持人：邢剑炜（北京大学国家发展研究院）

时间：2025年4月18日（周五）上午10:30-12:00

地点：承泽园131教室

摘要：

The surging frequency of extreme weather events demands stronger climate resilience in public infrastructure. In this project, we examine whether an early warning system of extreme weather could increase the climate resilience in transport networks. Leveraging on a station-by-hour subway ridership dataset in Beijing for two years and merge the information with 23 rainstorm warning events, we estimate the impact of rainstorm warnings on subway ridership by exploiting district-level advisory variations to form treatment and control stations near administrative boundaries. We have three main findings so far: 1) rainstorm increases subway ridership by 3.9% on average; 2) rainstorm warnings lead to a 3.5% decline in subway ridership, and a 14.4% decline in ridership if preceding weather aligns with the warning; 3) intertemporal shift of trips is unlikely to explain the result; instead, modal shift from subway to road transport is likely to be a mechanism explaining the impact of rainstorm warnings.

主讲人介绍：

秦雨目前担任新加坡国立大学商学院房地产系教授，主要研究领域包括环境经济学和城市经济学，研究发表在Economic Journal, Journal of Labor Economics, Journal of Public Economics, Journal of Development Economics, JEEM, Nature Climate Change, Nature Human Behaviour等顶级经济和科学类期刊。秦雨目前担任China Economic Review共同主编，JEBO副主编, Journal of Economic Geography和JEEM的编委会委员。秦雨2009年本科毕业于北京大学光华管理学院金融学专业，2014年获得康奈尔大学应用经济学博士学位。