讲座题目：Gravity’s Politics
主讲人：Theo Serlin（Princeton University）
讲座时间：2024年12月18日 周三 10:30-12:00
讲座地点：北京大学国家发展研究院承泽园校区245教室
组织者：
(国家发展研究院) 李力行、席天扬、徐化愚、于航、王轩、易君健、黄清扬
(经济学院) 刘冲、吴群峰、曹光宇、年永威
(光华管理学院）张晓波、仇心诚

摘要：Across contexts, trade flows decline with geographic distance. This paper explores the implications of that fact for politics. In a multi-region model of trade, differences in trade costs create uneven gains and losses from liberalization. This heterogeneity provides a basis for political divisions over trade policy, even in the absence of sector or factor differences. Some areas gain from lower prices and export opportunities, but regions that sell into those areas face greater competition. I calibrate this model to data on regional trade flows in the US to quantify these uneven gains and losses. This new measure captures different variation than commonly-used measures of trade exposure that ignore the geographic context. The modeled gains from liberalization are predictive of support for trade by voters and legislators, including in specifications that exploit within-unit variation in trade gains with different partners. Spatial frictions to trade create spatial cleavages over trade.

主讲人简介：Theo Serlin is a Postdoctoral Research Associate at the Niehaus Center for Globalization and Governance at Princeton University. His work focuses on international and comparative political economy, with a particular emphasis on integrating economic geography into models of policy preferences and electoral politics. His research explores key issues such as the politics of trade, redistribution, and economic change. Dr. Serlin earned his Ph.D. in Political Science from Stanford University in 2024 and also holds an M.A. in Economics from Stanford, awarded in 2022. He graduated summa cum laude from Harvard College in 2018 with an A.B. in History. Starting in July 2025, Dr. Serlin will join the Department of Political Economy at King’s College London as a Lecturer (Assistant Professor).