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国际经济学workshop: Greater Than the Sum of the Parts:Aggregate vs. Aggregated Inflation Expectations
发布日期：2023-09-26 12:00 来源：
主讲人：Raphael S. Schoenle（Brandeis University）
主持人：余昌华（北京大学国家发展研究院）
时间：2023年9月26日（周二）下午20:00-21:30（北京时间）
地点：承泽园249教室
Zoom会议号：926 3889 7210
密码：908060
摘要：
Using novel survey evidence on consumer inflation expectations disaggregated by personal consumption expenditure (PCE) categories, we document the paradox that consumers’ aggregate inflation expectations usually exceed any individual category expectation. We explore procedures for aggregating category inflation expectations, and find that the inconsistency between aggregate and aggregated inflation expectations rises with subjective uncertainty and is systematically related to socioeconomic characteristics. Overall, our results are inconsistent with the notion that consumers’ aggregate inflation expectations comprise an expenditure-weighted sum of category beliefs. Moreover, aggregated inflation expectations explain a greater share of planned consumer spending than aggregate inflation expectations.
主讲人介绍：
Raphael Schoenle received his Ph.D. from Princeton University. His research uses micro price data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics to study how firms set prices and the implications for macro-economic modeling and policy. Recent work focuses on price setting to include the interaction of price setting with the network structure of the economy, and the inflation expectations. His research also explores the role of beliefs for household finance decisions. He is currently also the Scientific Director of CEBRA and he was recently on leave as the Deputy Director at the Center for Inflation Research at the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland. He has published papers on American Economic Review, Journal of Finance, Journal of International Economics, Journal of Monetary Economics, Journal of Politcal Economy: Macro and Review of International Economics.
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首页
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国际经济学workshop: Greater Than the Sum of the Parts:Aggregate vs. Aggregated Inflation Expectations
发布日期：2023-09-26 12:00 来源：
主讲人：Raphael S. Schoenle（Brandeis University）
主持人：余昌华（北京大学国家发展研究院）
时间：2023年9月26日（周二）下午20:00-21:30（北京时间）
地点：承泽园249教室
Zoom会议号：926 3889 7210
密码：908060
摘要：
Using novel survey evidence on consumer inflation expectations disaggregated by personal consumption expenditure (PCE) categories, we document the paradox that consumers’ aggregate inflation expectations usually exceed any individual category expectation. We explore procedures for aggregating category inflation expectations, and find that the inconsistency between aggregate and aggregated inflation expectations rises with subjective uncertainty and is systematically related to socioeconomic characteristics. Overall, our results are inconsistent with the notion that consumers’ aggregate inflation expectations comprise an expenditure-weighted sum of category beliefs. Moreover, aggregated inflation expectations explain a greater share of planned consumer spending than aggregate inflation expectations.
主讲人介绍：
Raphael Schoenle received his Ph.D. from Princeton University. His research uses micro price data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics to study how firms set prices and the implications for macro-economic modeling and policy. Recent work focuses on price setting to include the interaction of price setting with the network structure of the economy, and the inflation expectations. His research also explores the role of beliefs for household finance decisions. He is currently also the Scientific Director of CEBRA and he was recently on leave as the Deputy Director at the Center for Inflation Research at the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland. He has published papers on American Economic Review, Journal of Finance, Journal of International Economics, Journal of Monetary Economics, Journal of Politcal Economy: Macro and Review of International Economics.
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