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宏观经济学workshop| 记忆与信念：来自实地的证据
发布日期：2023-05-22 12:00 来源：
Memory & Beliefs: Evidence from the Field
时间：2023年5月22日（周一）10：00 - 11：30
线上地址：Zoom Link：https://zoom.us/j/99485155941
Meeting ID: 994 8515 5941
主讲人：Michael Weber （Chicago Booth）
摘要：We propose a unique setting to test regularities about the recall of economic signals and the formation of subjective economic expectations in the field. For a large sample of US households, we observe the full set of prices and price changes of grocery goods purchased over a calendar year (memory databases) as well as their present-day recalled and expected inflation. Consistent with selective recall, observing fewer and larger (more salient) price changes leads to recall and expect higher inflation. We find evidence of proactive interference, whereby agents mistakenly recall older prices and hence lower prices than they actually paid, and retroactive interference, whereby agents rely less on the price changes stored in their memory database to form beliefs if other contexts associated with prices are cued exogenously. Our results support models of beliefs formation in which memory is a cognitive microfoundation.
主讲人简介：Michael Weber joined Chicago Booth in 2014 as an Assistant Professor of Finance and was promoted to Associate Professor in 2018. He is also a faculty research fellow at the National Bureau of Economic Research in the Monetary Economics and Asset Pricing groups, Research Affiliate in the Monetary Economics and Fluctuations programme of CEPR, a member of the Macro Finance Society, a Research Professor at Ifo Institute and a research affiliate at the CESifo Research Network. He is also academic consultant for the European Central Bank, the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, and several other central banks.
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宏观经济学workshop| 记忆与信念：来自实地的证据
发布日期：2023-05-22 12:00 来源：
Memory & Beliefs: Evidence from the Field
时间：2023年5月22日（周一）10：00 - 11：30
线上地址：Zoom Link：https://zoom.us/j/99485155941
Meeting ID: 994 8515 5941
主讲人：Michael Weber （Chicago Booth）
摘要：We propose a unique setting to test regularities about the recall of economic signals and the formation of subjective economic expectations in the field. For a large sample of US households, we observe the full set of prices and price changes of grocery goods purchased over a calendar year (memory databases) as well as their present-day recalled and expected inflation. Consistent with selective recall, observing fewer and larger (more salient) price changes leads to recall and expect higher inflation. We find evidence of proactive interference, whereby agents mistakenly recall older prices and hence lower prices than they actually paid, and retroactive interference, whereby agents rely less on the price changes stored in their memory database to form beliefs if other contexts associated with prices are cued exogenously. Our results support models of beliefs formation in which memory is a cognitive microfoundation.
主讲人简介：Michael Weber joined Chicago Booth in 2014 as an Assistant Professor of Finance and was promoted to Associate Professor in 2018. He is also a faculty research fellow at the National Bureau of Economic Research in the Monetary Economics and Asset Pricing groups, Research Affiliate in the Monetary Economics and Fluctuations programme of CEPR, a member of the Macro Finance Society, a Research Professor at Ifo Institute and a research affiliate at the CESifo Research Network. He is also academic consultant for the European Central Bank, the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, and several other central banks.
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