Import Competition, Technological Diffusion, Input-Output Networks, and Industry Dynamics: the Case of China's WTO Accession

主讲人：石襄禺，耶鲁大学经济系博士生

主持人：余淼杰、余昌华（北京大学国家发展研究院）

时间：2022年03月01日（周二）上午10:30-12:00

地点：承泽园246教室

线上：加入Zoom会议：https://zoom.com.cn/j/92638897210?pwd=d1pkemQ3d2MrSmZLNzJmTzdCOCtBUT09

会议号：926 3889 7210

密码：908060

摘要：I study how trade liberalization, or more specifically, WTO accession by China in 2001, affects industry dynamics: entry, exit, and innovation in China. Using various identification strategies (DDD, IV, DD), I find that the trade liberalization has the following causal impacts: (1) in the short run it leads to less entry, more exit, and more innovation in tradable sectors and regions more affected by imports, while (2) in the long run leads to more entry, decreasingly more exit, and increasingly more innovation, and (3) the effects of the trade liberalization diffuse in the input-output network. Evidence suggests that the short-term results can be explained by import competition, while the long-term results can be explained by learning from foreign sellers and technological diffusion. I build and estimate a quantitative industry dynamics model with learning and input-output linkages to rationalize such facts and quantify the importance of different channels. The implications for optimal trade policy design are discussed.

主讲人简介：

Xiangyu Shi is a Ph.D. Student in Economics, Yale University, and a referee of the American Economic Review: Insights and the China Economic Review. In 2017, he graduated from CCER, Peking University. Now, his research interests are mainly in development, industrial organization, trade, and environmental economics. Till now, he has published two papers in the Journal of Development Economics.