航空业的碳排放占全球总量的2%至3%，但却是减排最具挑战性的领域之一。可持续航空燃料（SAF）被广泛认为是实现航空净零排放的“唯一规模化解决方案”。然而，目前其产量仅占全球航油的0.3%，价格则是传统航油的2至3倍，且市场主要集中在欧美地区。中国是否能够突破“高成本—小市场”的恶性循环，将原料优势、新能源优势和制造优势转化为产业优势，助力实现碳达峰与碳中和目标？

北京大学国家发展研究院课题组拆解了主流SAF技术路线的成本，探讨如何降低SAF与传统航油之间的“溢价”，提出 “需求先行”的政策框架，为“十五五”期间SAF的规模化发展提供建议。

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Igniting the SAF Market: Policy Pathways for Scaling Sustainable Aviation Fuel in China

Aviation accounts for 2–3% of global carbon emissions, yet it remains one of the most challenging sectors to decarbonize. Sustainable Aviation Fuel (SAF) is widely recognized as the only scalable solution to achieve net-zero emissions in aviation. However, SAF currently represents just 0.3% of global jet fuel consumption, costs 2–3 times more than conventional jet fuel, and remains concentrated in Europe and North America.

Can China break the vicious cycle of “high cost → small market”? By leveraging its abundant feedstock resources, renewable energy leadership, and manufacturing prowess, can China transform these strengths into a competitive SAF industry—and contribute decisively to its carbon peak and carbon neutrality goals?

The research team from the National School of Development at Peking University has conducted a detailed cost breakdown of mainstream SAF technology pathways, explored strategies to narrow the price premium over conventional jet fuel, and proposed a “demand-side” policy framework. This provides actionable recommendations for achieving large-scale SAF deployment during China’s 15th Five-Year Plan period and beyond.

Click to read the full report and access China’s SAF industry policy roadmap. Let’s accelerate the takeoff of China’s sustainable aviation fuel sector together.

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