北大国发院赵波教授的合作论文《Flight to Housing in China》被宏观经济学领域顶级期刊Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control接受发表。该论文与清华大学的董丰教授、上海交通大学许志伟教授和上海对外经贸大学刘建丰教授合著。

文章利用CFPS 2010-2018的微观数据发现首次发现不确定性与房价的正相关的证据：家庭持久收入冲击的不确定性增长较快的地区，房地产均价上升也较快。文章在此基础上构建了一个包含异质性家庭的两部门（房地产部门、实体经济部门）的不完全市场一般均衡模型来解释这一现象。房产作为价值储藏的手段，可以帮助家庭抵御风险免受流动性约束的限制。增加的不确定性增加了住房需求、抬高了房价，并挤出了实体经济投资，最终导致产出下降和经济衰退。他们还定量的分析了政府限购政策对于经济的一般均衡影响。他们的研究发现这样的限制措施有效的降低了房价，但居民持有的安全资产变少了，因而削弱了居民对于风险分散的能力。这就要求制定地产调控措施的时候同样重视房地产市场供给端的调节作用，提高政府的土地供给效率，进一步完善金融市场，特别是基金和债券市场，丰富安全资产的种类，进一步支持实体经济发展。

英文摘要：We empirically detect the flight to safety vis-a-vis housing in China: Great economic uncertainty causes the prices of housing assets to soar. To stabilize housing prices, China has imposed purchase restrictions on the housing market. We study the aggregate and distributional effects of this housing policy by developing a two-sector model with heterogeneous households. An uncertainty shock generates a countercyclical housing boom by shifting outward households' demand for housing as a store of value. A vibrant housing sector then leads to an economic recession by crowding out resources that could have been allocated to the real sector. Our quantitative analysis suggests that the policy limiting housing purchases effectively curb surging housing prices. However, the policy restricts households' access to housing that can be used to buffer idiosyncratic uncertainties, creating a larger consumption dispersion. Consequently, the housing policy creates a trade-off between macro-level stability and micro-level consumption risk sharing.

论文下载 ../../docs/20210629145708680365.pdf