主讲人：Natalia Ramondo，Boston University

题目：Carbon Taxes in the Global Economy: A Quantitative Analysis

参与老师：余昌华、薛思帆

时间：2025年12月17日（周三）晚上21:00-22:30（北京时间）

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摘要：

We develop a quantitative model of trade, sectoral linkages, and carbon emissions, with fossil fuel markets playing a central role. These goods, produced from natural resources and traded globally, exhibit upward-sloping supply. We use the model to account for carbon emissions, quantify the impact of trade shocks on emissions and welfare, and to derive and evaluate optimal carbon ax instruments implemented at different stages of the global value chain. We compare, alone and in combination, an extraction tax on fossil fuel mining, a production tax on the direct use of fossil fuels, and consumption and export taxes on the use of fossil fuels in intermediate and final goods. We show how each tax instrument affects direct and indirect emissions and how global value chains reorganize endogenously in response. We estimate fossil fuel supply elasticity using mine-level data across world regions, and show that a $100 per ton CO2 global carbon tax would cut emissions by nearly half and raise welfare by 1.4 percent. Unilateral optimal production taxes induce substantial leakage. A unilateral optimal consumption tax that affect direct and indirect emissions along the global value chains can reduce leakage and yield greater global welfare gains. Pairing unilateral consumption and extraction taxes yields larger welfare gains than implementing either tax in isolation, whereas adding export taxes to the mix produces only modest additional benefits---except when imposed by China, where the effects are substantial.

主讲人介绍：

Natalia Ramondo is a Professor in the Department of Economics at Boston University and a Research Associate at the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER), Center for Economic Policy and Research (CEPR), and the CESifo research network. Her research is focused on globalization issues at the intersection of international trade, multinational production, and macroeconomics. She develops theoretical and quantitative frameworks to study the distributional and welfare implications of trade and foreign direct investment, the role of multinational enterprises in global value chains and the environment, and the dynamic responses of firms to shocks in general equilibrium.

Prof. Ramondo has published her work in leading economics journals, including the American Economic Review, the Journal of Political Economy, and the Review of Economic Studies, and she is frequently invited to present her research at major conferences and leading universities worldwide, as well as Central banks and international organizations. She has also been recognized with research support from the National Science Foundation and Sloan Foundation.

She currently serves as an Associate Editor at the Journal of Monetary Economics, the Journal of International Economics, and the American Economic Journal: Microeconomics. At Boston University, she actively mentors graduate students and helps foster the department’s research community in international and spatial economics.