讲座人：李科杨，对外经济贸易大学国际经济贸易学院

讲座时间：2026年3月18日上午10:30-12:00

讲座地点：北京大学国家发展研究院承泽园校区249教室

讲座题目：Not in the Spread: Developer Defaults, Municipal Borrowing, and Bank Absorption in China

内容简介：We examine how corporate defaults propagate into public finance and the banking system by leveraging bond defaults of Chinese real estate developers in China as plausibly exogenous shocks. Using a staggered difference-in-differences design on a city–quarter panel of 263 cities from 2016 to 2022, we show that developer defaults trigger a sharp substitution from land revenues to local government financing vehicle (LGFV) bonds: issuance rises by 67.5%, or approximately CNY 170 billion annually. Strikingly, this borrowing expansion occurs without widening yield spreads, indicating non-market absorption. We trace this to city commercial banks, which absorb local LGFV bonds under government influence and subsequently issue subordinated debt to manage the resulting capital pressure. This transmission from real estate distress to municipal borrowing and finally to local banks highlights a novel fiscal-financial risk channel. Our findings extend the literature on state-owned banks, local government debt, and systemic risk by demonstrating how fiscal institutions exacerbate financial fragility when market discipline fails.

主讲人简介：李科杨，对外经济贸易大学国际经济贸易学院副教授，SSCI期刊China Economic Review副主编。主要研究领域为公共经济学、城市与房地产经济学。在Journal of Public Economics、Journal of Development Economics、Journal of Urban Economics、Journal of Human Resources、经济学（季刊）等国内外一流经济学期刊发表论文十余篇。主持国家自然科学基金青年项目，获得亚洲房地产学会年会最佳论文奖、世界华人不动产学会年会最佳论文奖（特等奖）等学术荣誉和奖励。

组织者：

（国家发展研究院 ）李力行、席天扬、徐化愚、于航、王轩、易君健、黄清扬

（经济学院）刘冲、吴群峰、曹光宇、年永威

（光华管理学院）张晓波、仇心诚