主讲人：Karsten Müller, National University of Singapore

题目：Unbalanced Financial Deepening

参与老师：余昌华、薛思帆

时间：2026年5月19日（周二）上午10:00-11:30（北京时间）

地点：承泽园245教室

摘要：

Economic development is associated with a rise in the ratio of firm credit to GDP. Novel cross-country data on the sectoral distribution of credit reveal that underlying this aggregate trend is a significant reallocation of credit from manufacturing towards the real estate sector. This reallocation substantially outpaces structural change in the real economy, suggesting a role for changing financing constraints. We provide evidence on various drivers of the asymmetric increase in firm credit to the real estate sector: a collateral channel driven by rising real estate prices, increasing reliance on intangible assets outside of real estate, and the removal of government-directed credit policies. We then document that higher manufacturing credit predicts higher long-run growth, but the opposite is true for real estate credit. These results have two implications. First, understanding the linkages between finance and economic growth depends not only on the level but also on the composition of credit. Second, financial deepening in credit markets may play a more important role in spurring growth at lower levels of development.

主讲人介绍：

Karsten Müller is a Presidential Young Professor and an Assistant Professor of Finance at the National University of Singapore. He is also a Research Fellow at the Risk Management Institute (RMI) and an Affiliate at the CEPR. His research focuses on financial intermediation, macroeconomics, and the real effects of social media. His research has been cited 2,800+ and downloaded 58,000+ times, and has been covered by leading media outlets worldwide.