E2026007                                                              2026-05-12

Rufei Guo  Lin Lin  Junjian Yi  Hanyu Zhu

Abstract:
We study the intergenerational impact of birth-control policies on fertility and examine whether and how these policies reduce fertility, even after their abolition. We develop a model that integrates the endogenous evolution of fertility norms. Birth-control policies, through the reduction of mothers’ fertility, establish new norms that shape the fertility decisions of subsequent generations. Consequently, daughters’ fertility is lower due to these new norms, even when the policies are no longer in force. To test the model’s implications, we leverage a quasi-experimental setting provided by China’s One-Child Policy, which was implemented in a staggered manner starting in 1979 and gradually phased out beginning in 2014. Based on the recently released 2020 population census, our results reveal that the policy has an impact on reducing fertility and affects generations no longer subject to its regulations. This study is the first to provide causal evidence of birth-control policies from an intergenerational perspective and highlights the role of norms in shaping fertility outcomes.

Keywords: Birth-control Policies; Fertility; Norms; Intergenerational Spillovers

Classification: D1, J11, J13

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