主讲人：崔静远，IMF

题目：The Dynamics of Technology Transfer: Multinational Investment in China and Rising Global Competition

参与老师：余昌华、薛思帆

时间：2025年10月21日（周二）上午10:30-12:00（北京时间）

地点：245教室

摘要：

U.S. multinationals formed joint ventures in China for market access and lower labor costs. However, these ventures transfer technology to Chinese firms, fueling future competition. While individual firms weigh the risks to their own profits, they disregard the negative impact on other U.S. firms and the broader economy, resulting in an over-investment that may reduce U.S. welfare. In our empirical analysis, industries with more joint ventures in China show positive spillovers to Chinese firms but negative outcomes for firms in the U.S. We develop a two-country model with oligopolistic competition, innovation, and joint ventures. For the U.S., the short-run gains from joint ventures are outweighed by long-run losses due to rising Chinese competition. Joint ventures benefit large U.S. firms at the expense of small firms and the real wages of workers. A ban on joint ventures since 1999 would have boosted U.S. welfare by 1.2 percent. By contrast, if restrictions were imposed starting in 2025, U.S. welfare would fall by 0.7 percent, as the narrower U.S.–China technology gap makes technology diffusion less harmful and the loss of JV profits and market access more costly.

主讲人介绍：

George Cui is an economist at the International Monetary Fund. His research focuses on international trade, industrial policy, and sovereign debt, examining how global integration and technology transfer affect welfare and competitiveness. He holds a Ph.D. in Economics from the University of Michigan and a Master’s degree from the National School of Development at Peking University.