主讲人：Aurélien Eyquem, Université de Lausanne (HEC)

题目：Trade Wars and the Optimal Design of Monetary Rules

主持人：余昌华（北京大学国家发展研究院）

时间：2024年11月26日（周二）下午18:00-19:30（北京时间）

会议形式：线上

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https://us06web.zoom.us/j/85789793454?pwd=ZuhOpu9hWtlbnYzksWwhkXO6t67H8D.1

Meeting ID: 857 8979 3454

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摘要：

Countries have an incentive to use tariffs to gain advantage over trade partners, but an optimal tariff must weigh the benefits of an improved terms of trade against the costs that the tariff imposes on the domestic economy. In the presence of monopoly distortions and nominal rigidities, the stance of monetary policy may have a large effect on the evaluation of these costs. In a global economy where all countries set tariffs unilaterally in a ’trade war’, the final outcome can differ dramatically depending on different monetary policy rules. We set out a model of a trade war in a New Keynesian open-economy model. For any one country, a tariff improves the terms of trade but is costly due to its deflationary effect on the domestic economy. A monetary rule which targets the CPI or stabilizes the nominal exchange rate exacerbates these latter costs, and leads to lower equilibrium tariff rates in a trade war. Furthermore, an optimally delegated monetary rule can in fact completely eliminate a trade war.

主讲人介绍：

Prof. Eyquem is an Associate Professor at Université de Lausanne (HEC). He has previously held positions at the École Normale Supérieure de Lyon and the Université Lumière Lyon 2. From 2017 to 2022, he was a junior member of the Institut Universitaire de France. He has received awards from the Banque de France Foundation and the Brittany Region for young researchers. Prof. Eyquem's research focuses on dynamic macroeconomics with an emphasis on economic policy issues. Two other important areas of his work are the dimension of open economy (how do trade and financial openness or exchange rate regimes affect policy decisions?) and the dynamics of unemployment and individual risks faced by agents (by introducing an additional trade-off between economic efficiency and insurance against individual risks). His work has been published in leading economics journals such as Review of Economic Studies, AEJ: Macroeconomics, Journal of International Economics, Journal of Monetary Economics, Journal of Public Economics, or International Economic Review.