题目: How to Select Equilibrium Selection Devices from Data?

主讲人：Yang Yu (Shanghai Jiao Tong University)

时间：2024年11月28日 下午14:00 – 15:30

地点：承泽园131

摘要：Multiple equilibria models are prevalent in economics. Despite sustained interest in these models, researchers grapple with the challenge of selecting a specific equilibrium. In this study, I propose an empirical method that identifies the most empirically plausible equilibrium selection mechanisms from three popular options in the macroeconomic literature: global games, history-dependence, and sunspot shocks. I leverage time series data and analyze the distribution of economic outcomes conditional on economic fundamentals across current and past periods. When applied to multiple equilibria models of the aggregate labor market, my method reveals strong evidence favoring global games and history-dependence as the preferred equilibrium selection device in accounting for the observed labor market dynamics, depending on how the data are filtered.

主讲人简介：Yang Yu is an Associate Professor of Economics at Antai College of Economics and Management, Shanghai Jiao Tong University. He holds a PhD in Economics from Duke University and has previously taught at Shanghai University of Finance and Economics. His research areas include macroeconomics and finance. His work has been published in international journals such as the Review of Economic Studies, Journal of Monetary Economics, Management Science, and Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis.