主讲人：Muhammad Ali Nasir, Leeds University Business School, Visiting Professor PKU

题目：Trade War Shocks, Inflation Compensation, and Price Stability

参与老师：余昌华、薛思帆

时间：2026年4月7日（周二）上午10:00-11:30（北京时间）

地点：承泽园245教室

摘要：

The U.S.–China trade-war has crucial, yet less understood and underexplored implications for price stability. This paper analyses the effects of US–China trade-war shocks on market-based inflation compensation and price stability. We identify trade-war shocks using event-day heteroskedasticity, exploiting the rise in the variance of financial-market innovations on major trade-war announcement days relative to non-event days. Using daily U.S. data from January 2016 to February 2026, we estimate a structural system including inflation compensation, equity returns, the ten-year Treasury yield, the VIX, and credit spreads. The identification results are consistent with a strong rank-one shift in the residual covariance matrix, supporting the presence of a dominant structural trade-war shock. We further examine how these effects vary with policy uncertainty, shock persistence, the sign of trade-war news, and the political regimes. Trade-war shocks lower inflation compensation, depress equity prices, reduce long-term nominal yields, raise volatility, and widen credit spreads. This joint pattern suggests that financial markets interpret trade-war shocks primarily through weaker growth expectations and higher risk premia rather than persistent cost-push inflationary pressure. Overall, our results highlight how trade policy uncertainty shapes inflation compensation and the broader macro-financial environment.

主讲人介绍：

Muhammad Ali Nasir joined the University of Leeds in February 2022. Prior to that, he has worked as an Associate Professor in Economics at the University of Huddersfield since July 2020. Dr Nasir has worked as a Senior Lecturer in Economics at Leeds Business School between May 2012 –  June 2020. He has a PhD in Economics and is greatly interested in the areas of Monetary Economics, Macroeconomics, Financial Economics and International Economics, He is an active researcher and has published in a number of reputable journals in the last few years. Dr Nasir is also involved in the research supervision of masters and doctoral level students. Dr Nasir is a key team player, possessing an excellent command of a wide range of analytical techniques paired with sound researching capabilities. He is well versed in a wide range of pedagogical and analytical techniques and their context of application. Dr Nasir possesses good communication and interpersonal skills. Dr Nasir demonstrates a strong commitment to innovative pedagogy, enterprise, research-informed teaching and productive collaborative research. Currently, he is working on the challenges of macroeconomic policy formulation and issues around financial stability, particularly in the Post- COVID-19 world.