主讲人：孙铭佐, 东北财经大学

题目：Inherited Debt, Gross Capital Flow Comovement, and Optimal Intervention

参与老师：余昌华、薛思帆

时间：2026年5月12日（周二）上午10:00-11:30（北京时间）

地点：承泽园245教室

摘要：

This paper develops an open-economy model of gross capital-flow comovement and optimal intervention in emerging markets, emphasizing the role of inherited long-term external debt. In the analytical version of the model, I show that variation in inherited debt, together with the risk of financial tightening, can cause capital inflows and outflows to move in the same direction even in the absence of contemporaneous shocks. Optimal ex-ante intervention is debt-dependent: there exists an inherited debt threshold below which policymakers should expand the external balance sheet and above which they should reduce it. I then extend the framework to a quantitative infinite-horizon environment with Markov-switching external financial conditions. The quantitative model preserves the essential mechanisms of the analytical model, confirming both the positive comovement of gross capital flows and the state-dependent nature of optimal intervention.

主讲人介绍：

Mingzuo Sun is an Assistant Professor at the Institute for Advanced Economic Research, Dongbei University of Finance and Economics. He received his Ph.D. in Economics from Johns Hopkins University. His research focuses on open-economy macroeconomics and international finance, with particular emphasis on exchange rate dynamics, capital-flow fluctuations, and optimal policy design in open economies with financial and other frictions. His work has been published in the Journal of International Economics.