The Job Ladder: Inflation vs. Reallocation

主讲人：Giuseppe Moscarini (Yale University)

时间：2022年5月20日 上午9:00 – 10:30

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摘要：

We introduce on-the-job search frictions in an otherwise standard monetary DSGE New-Keynesian model. Heterogeneity in productivity across jobs generates a job ladder. Firms Bertrand-compete for employed workers using the Sequential Auctions protocol of Postel-Vinay and Robin (2002). Outside job offers to employed workers, when accepted, reallocate employment up the productivity ladder; when declined, because matched by the current employer, they raise production costs and, due to nominal price rigidities, compress mark-ups, building inflationary pressure. When employment is concentrated at the bottom of the job ladder, typically after recessions, the reallocation effect prevails, aggregate supply expands, moderating marginal costs and inflation. As workers climb the job ladder, reducing slack in the employment pool, the inflation effect takes over. The model generates endogenous cyclical movements in the Neo Classical labor wedge and in the New Keynesian wage mark-up. The economy takes time to absorb cyclical misallocation and features propagation in the response of job creation, unemployment and wage inflation to aggregate shocks. The ratio between job finding probabilities from other jobs and from unemployment, a measure of the “acceptance rate” of job offers to employed workers, predicts negatively future inflation, independently of the unemployment rate, both in the model and in reduced-form empirical evidence that we provide.

主讲人简介：

Giuseppe Moscarini is Professor of Economics at Yale University and a research associate of the NBER. His research has been influential on Macroeconomics, Labor markets, Job search and Economics of Information. His work has been regularly published on top peer-reviewed journals, including Econometrica, American Economic Review and Review of Economic Studies. He is the Co-Chair of the research group “Micro and Macro Perspectives on the Aggregate Labor Market” at NBER Economic Fluctuations and Growth Program. He is the former coeditor in Theoretical Economics, Member of the Board of Editors in American Economic Review, and the associate editor in Journal of Economic Theory.