Networks and Business Cycles

主讲人：祝武（清华大学经济管理学院）

主持人：余淼杰、余昌华（北京大学国家发展研究院）

时间：2022年03月15日（周二）上午10:30-12:00

地点：承泽园246教室

Zoom会议号：926 3889 7210

密码：908060

摘要：The speed at which the US economy has recovered from recessions ranges from months to years. We propose a model incorporating innovation network, production network, and cross-sectional shock and show that their interactions jointly explain large variations in the recovery speed across recessions in the US.

Besides the production linkages, firms learn insights on production from each other through the innovation network. We show that shock's sectoral distribution plays a crucial role in its amplification and persistence when the innovation network takes a low-rank structure.

We estimate a state-space model of the cross-sectional technology shock and document a set of new stylized facts on the structure of the innovation network and sectoral distribution of the shock for the US. We show that the specific low-rank network structure and the time-varying sectoral distribution of the shock can well explain the large variation in the recovery speed across recessions in the US. Finally, to emphasize the prevalence of the channel, we explore the application of the theory in asset pricing.

主讲人简介：

Wu Zhu is an Assistant Professor in the Department of Finance, Tsinghua University. In 2021, he received a Ph.D. in Economics from University of Pennsylvania. And he graduated from CCER, Peking University in 2016with M.A. His areas of expertise are Network Economics, Corporate Finance, Asset Pricing, Machine Learning, Deep Learning, Macro, and the Chinese Economy. Moreover, he is particularly interested in topics with a combination of big data and theory. Several of his papers have won best paper awards at academic conferences.