[12月21日] 国际经济学Workshop - 北京大学国家发展研究院

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[12月21日] 国际经济学Workshop

发布日期：2021-12-16 02:54 来源：

The Medium-Run Effect of a Deadly Epidemic on Firm Exports: Evidence from the 2003 SARS Outbreak

时间：2021年12月21日（周二）10:30am-noon

主持人：余淼杰、余昌华

主讲人：尤炜，北京大学新结构经济学研究院

地点：北京大学国家发展研究院承泽园249教室

摘要：We estimate the causal effect of a recent yet understudied health crisis---the 2003 SARS epidemic---on firm-level export value. This epidemic started in November 2002, infected 8,422 cases from 29 countries/regions, is highly deadly, and was quickly contained in July 2003. We combine a patient-level dataset that covers all the 5,327 SARS patients in China with a micro trade dataset that covers the universe of monthly export and import transactions between 2000 and 2006. We construct two measures of exposure to SARS: the first is based on the exposure to SARS patients in firms' local communities or local counties. The second measure is based on the exposure to SARS patients in firms' custom cities. Using a Difference-in-Differences strategy, we find that the local-based SARS exposure measure has no impact on firm-level export. On the other hand, the firms whose customs were more exposed to this epidemic experienced a significantly negative drop in export value. We interpret these results as suggesting that international buyers avoided buying goods from customs that were heavily hit by the epidemic, yet they had difficulty in distinguishing between the ultimate geographic sources of the goods.