Monetary Policy and Heterogeneity: An Analytical Framework

主讲人：Florin O. Bilbiie (University of Lausanne, Switzerland)

时间：2021年11月25日 下午3:00 – 4:30

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摘要：THANK is a tractable heterogeneous-agent New-Keynesian model that captures analytically key micro-heterogeneity channels of quantitative-HANK: cyclical inequality and risk as separate but related channels; idiosyncratic uncertainty and self-insurance, precautionary saving; and realistic intertemporal marginal propensities to consume. I use it for a full-fledged New Keynesian macro analysis: determinacy with interest-rate rules, solving the forward-guidance puzzle, amplification and multipliers, and optimal monetary policy. Amplification requires countercyclical while solving the puzzle requires procyclical inequality: a Catch-22, resolved in theory if the separate "pure" risk channel is procyclical enough. Price-level-targeting ensures determinacy and is puzzle-free, even when both inequality and risk are countercyclical, thus resolving the Catch-22. The same holds for a rule fixing nominal public debt in the model version with liquidity. Optimal policy with heterogeneity features a novel inequality-stabilization motive generating higher inflation volatility—but it is unaffected by risk, insofar as the target equilibrium entails no inequality.

主讲人简介：Florin O. Bilbiie is Professor of Economics at University of Lausanne, Switzerland and a research fellow of the CEPR. His academic interests are on macro and monetary economics, in particular, business cycles and monetary and fiscal stabilization policies. His work has been published in leading journals, including the Journal of Political Economy, Review of Economics and Statistics, American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, Journal of Monetary Economics and many other journals. His paper “The New Keynesian Cross” has been awarded the 2021 Best Paper Award of Journal of Monetary Economics.